LOST Case LOST Stoke City U21 3-2 Fulham U21
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Stoke City U21

Home Side
L L L L L
2W 1D 7L → Holding Steady
VS
3-2
F
Fulham U21
Away Side
L W W L L
5W 2D 3L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
53%
Monday, 23rd March 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Fulham U21 to win
Stoke City U21 20%
Draw 30%
Fulham U21 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob71.4%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-18.4%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<C<<<<U21<<<<<<<<F<<<<<<U21<<<<<<<62132BEFC4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 24 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — Fulham U21 to win
1.40
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Stoke City U21 vs Fulham U21 Competition: Premier League 2 Date: Monday, 23rd March 2026 Pick: 2 (Fulham U21 to win) Odds: 1.40 Confidence: 53% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: 62132BEFC
Head to Head
Record
0
Stoke City U21
2
Draws
3
Fulham U21
5
Meetings
2.6
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Fulham U21 won 3 of 5 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Stoke City U21
Metric
Fulham U21
1.4
Goals For / Game
2.1
2.7
Goals Against / Game
1.5
10%
Clean Sheets
20%
2-1-7
W — D — L
5-2-3
Win Rate
20%
50%
3.9
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
S0
0-0 2.1%
0-1 5.1%
0-2 6.1%
0-3 4.9%
0-4 2.9%
0-5 1.4%
S1
1-0 3.1%
1-1 7.4%
1-2 8.9%
1-3 7.1%
1-4 4.3%
1-5 2.1%
S2
2-0 2.2%
2-1 5.4%
2-2 6.4%
2-3 5.2%
2-4 3.1%
2-5 1.5%
S3
3-0 1.1%
3-1 2.6%
3-2 3.1%
3-3 2.5%
3-4 1.5%
3-5 0.7%
S4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.9%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.5%
4-5 0.3%
S5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 1-2(8.9%) 1-3(7.1%) 0-2(6.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Stoke City U21 Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Fulham U21 Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Stoke City U21
Overall
2.3
Scoring
4.7
Defence
1.0
Fulham U21
Overall
5.6
Scoring
7.0
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Home Win & BTTS No 7%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 41%
Away Win & BTTS No 17%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 19%
Home Win & Under 2.5 5%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 46%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
25.10.24
PL2: Stoke City U210
Fulham U211
11.03.23
PLC: Stoke City U211
Fulham U216
02.03.16
PL2: Fulham U211
Stoke City U21 1
12.09.15
PL2: Stoke City U211
Fulham U212
28.02.14
PL2: Stoke City U210
Fulham U210
Recent Form
Stoke City U21
13.03.26
PL2: Middlesbrough U216
Stoke City U211
L
09.03.26
PL2: Stoke City U211
Burnley U213
L
27.02.26
PL2: Norwich U214
Stoke City U212
L
13.02.26
PL2: Ipswich U212
Stoke City U211
L
07.02.26
PL2: Reading U213
Stoke City U210
L
04.02.26
PLC: Reading U215
Stoke City U210
L
30.01.26
PL2: Stoke City U211
Manchester City U216
L
23.01.26
PL2: Stoke City U211
Tottenham U212
L
16.01.26
PL2: Leeds U210
Stoke City U211
W
21.12.25
PLC: Stoke City U211
Derby U211
D
Fulham U21
13.03.26
PL2: Fulham U211
Nottingham Forest U212
L
06.03.26
PL2: Brighton U213
Fulham U214
W
27.02.26
PL2: Fulham U213
Burnley U211
W
20.02.26
PL2: Newcastle United U213
Fulham U210
L
13.02.26
PL2: Crystal Palace U212
Fulham U211
L
06.02.26
PL2: Fulham U215
West Ham U210
W
30.01.26
PL2: Norwich City U210
Fulham U212
W
23.01.26
PL2: Fulham U211
Middlesbrough U211
D
16.01.26
PL2: Fulham U212
Manchester United U212
D
09.01.26
PL2: Ipswich Town U211
Fulham U212
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Monday, 23rd March 2026, Stoke City U21 host Fulham U21 in Premier League 2. Our analysis desk recommends Fulham U21 to win as the standout selection.

Stoke City U21 arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Fulham U21 are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 2D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Stoke City U21, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Fulham U21's 3, with 2 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: fulham u21 to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Premier League 2 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.40. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 24 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Stoke City U21 vs Fulham U21?
Our selection is 2 — Fulham U21 to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Stoke City U21's current form?
Stoke City U21 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Fulham U21 been performing recently?
Fulham U21 have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Stoke City U21 lead with 0 wins versus Fulham U21's 3, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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