WON Case WON East Bengal 7-0 Mohammedan
Fixture Case File · Ref V
E

East Bengal

Home Side
D D L W W
3W 4D 3L → Holding Steady
VS
7-0
M
Mohammedan
Away Side
L L L L L
2W 1D 7L ▲ Trending Up
CAUTION
41%
Monday, 23rd March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on East Bengal to win
East Bengal 50%
Draw 30%
Mohammedan 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob82%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-41%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBE<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<AE088A6584DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 24 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — East Bengal to win
1.22
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
East Bengal vs Mohammedan Competition: India ISL Date: Monday, 23rd March 2026 Pick: 1 (East Bengal to win) Odds: 1.22 Confidence: 41% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ledger Ref: AE088A658
Head to Head
Record
4
East Bengal
5
Draws
1
Mohammedan
10
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
90%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Against Filing East Bengal won 4 of the last 10 meetings (5 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
East Bengal
Metric
Mohammedan
1.5
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.1
Goals Against / Game
2
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
3-4-3
W — D — L
2-1-7
Win Rate
30%
20%
2.9
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
E0
0-0 5.5%
0-1 6.3%
0-2 3.6%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
E1
1-0 9.6%
1-1 11.1%
1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.4%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
E2
2-0 8.4%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.1%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
E3
3-0 4.9%
3-1 5.7%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
E4
4-0 2.2%
4-1 2.5%
4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 0.8%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.7%) 1-0(9.6%) 2-0(8.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing E=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
East Bengal Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Mohammedan Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
East Bengal
Overall
4.2
Scoring
5.0
Defence
6.3
Mohammedan
Overall
2.3
Scoring
4.0
Defence
3.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 18%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 24%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 20%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 16%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
16.02.25
ISL: Mohammedan1
East Bengal3
09.11.24
ISL: East Bengal0
Mohammedan0
20.09.24
CPD: Mohammedan2
East Bengal2
01.11.22
CPD: East Bengal1
Mohammedan1
26.09.19
CPD: East Bengal3
Mohammedan2
11.09.18
CPD: East Bengal1
Mohammedan2
16.09.17
CPD: East Bengal2
Mohammedan2
05.04.14
IL: Mohammedan1
East Bengal3
11.03.14
IL: East Bengal2
Mohammedan1
28.02.09
IL: East Bengal2
Mohammedan2
Recent Form
East Bengal
14.03.26
ISL: East Bengal1
Kerala Blasters1
D
05.03.26
ISL: East Bengal0
Goa0
D
27.02.26
ISL: East Bengal1
Jamshedpur2
L
21.02.26
ISL: East Bengal4
SC Delhi1
W
16.02.26
ISL: East Bengal3
North East Utd0
W
07.12.25
HSC: East Bengal0
Goa1
L
04.12.25
HSC: East Bengal3
Punjab1
W
31.10.25
HSC: Mohun Bagan0
East Bengal0
D
28.10.25
HSC: Chennaiyin0
East Bengal4
W
25.10.25
HSC: East Bengal2
Dempo2
D
Mohammedan
07.03.26
ISL: Mohammedan1
BEN2
L
28.02.26
ISL: MBG5
Mohammedan1
L
20.02.26
ISL: Mohammedan0
GOA2
L
15.02.26
ISL: JAM1
Mohammedan0
L
05.11.25
HSC: GOK3
Mohammedan0
L
02.11.25
HSC: Mohammedan0
PUN3
L
30.10.25
HSC: BEN2
Mohammedan0
L
13.09.25
CPD: Mohammedan6
RAI1
W
10.09.25
CPD: SOU0
Mohammedan3
W
05.09.25
CPD: UNK1
Mohammedan1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Monday, 23rd March 2026, East Bengal host Mohammedan in India ISL. Our analysis desk recommends East Bengal to win as the standout selection.

East Bengal arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Mohammedan are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 1D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour East Bengal, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Mohammedan's 1, with 5 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 90% of those meetings.

Our verdict: east bengal to win at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This India ISL game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.22. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 24 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for East Bengal vs Mohammedan?
Our selection is 1 — East Bengal to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 41%.
What is East Bengal's current form?
East Bengal have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Mohammedan been performing recently?
Mohammedan have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
East Bengal lead with 4 wins versus Mohammedan's 1, with 5 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 90%.
⚠️
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