WON Case WON Skenderbeu 1-0 Lliria Fushe-Kruje
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Skenderbeu

Home Side
D W D W W
7W 3D 0L ▼ Trending Down
VS
1-0
L
Lliria Fushe-Kruje
Away Side
D L W D D
4W 4D 2L ▼ Trending Down
CAUTION
43%
Saturday, 4th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Skenderbeu to win
Skenderbeu 50%
Draw 30%
Lliria Fushe-Kruje 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob75.8%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-32.8%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<L<<<<<<F<<<<<K<<<054908B514DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 4 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Skenderbeu to win
1.32
Under 2.5 Goals100% BTTS — No100%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Skenderbeu vs Lliria Fushe-Kruje Competition: Albania Kategoria E Pare Date: Saturday, 4th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Skenderbeu to win) Odds: 1.32 Confidence: 43% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (100%) Also: BTTS — No (100%) Ledger Ref: 054908B51
Head to Head
Record
0
Skenderbeu
5
Draws
0
Lliria Fushe-Kruje
5
Meetings
4.4
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Skenderbeu won 0 of the last 5 meetings (5 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Skenderbeu
Metric
Lliria Fushe-Kruje
0
Goals For / Game
0
0
Goals Against / Game
0
0%
Clean Sheets
0%
7-3-0
W — D — L
4-4-2
Win Rate
70%
40%
0
Avg Goals
0%
Over 1.5
0%
Over 2.5
0%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
S0
0-0 67.0%
0-1 13.4%
0-2 1.3%
0-3 0.1%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 13.4%
1-1 2.7%
1-2 0.3%
1-3 0.0%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
S2
2-0 1.3%
2-1 0.3%
2-2 0.0%
2-3 0.0%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
S3
3-0 0.1%
3-1 0.0%
3-2 0.0%
3-3 0.0%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 0.0%
4-1 0.0%
4-2 0.0%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(13.4%) 2-0(1.3%) 2-1(0.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   L=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Skenderbeu Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Lliria Fushe-Kruje Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Skenderbeu
Overall
7.9
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Lliria Fushe-Kruje
Overall
5.2
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Home Win & BTTS No 48%
Draw & BTTS Yes 0%
Draw & BTTS No 24%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 28%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 0%
Home Win & Under 2.5 48%
Draw & Over 2.5 0%
Draw & Under 2.5 24%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 28%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.12.25
Kategoria e Parë: KF Iliria0
KF Skënderbeu2
19.11.25
Albanian Cup: KF Skënderbeu4
KF Iliria2
12.09.25
Kategoria e Parë: KF Skënderbeu2
KF Iliria0
06.11.13
Albanian Cup: KF Skënderbeu8
KF Iliria0
23.10.13
Albanian Cup: KF Iliria1
KF Skënderbeu3
Recent Form
Skenderbeu
28.03.26
KP: AF Elbasani1
Skënderbeu1
D
22.03.26
KP: KF Besa Kavajë0
Skënderbeu1
W
18.03.26
KP: Skënderbeu0
Korabi Peshkopi0
D
14.03.26
KP: Apolonia Fier0
Skënderbeu1
W
07.03.26
KP: Skënderbeu2
KF Lushnja0
W
01.03.26
KP: AF Luftëtari0
Skënderbeu3
W
21.02.26
KP: Skënderbeu2
FK Kukësi1
W
14.02.26
KP: Skënderbeu3
Apolonia Fier2
W
07.02.26
KP: Korabi Peshkopi0
Skënderbeu0
D
30.01.26
KP: Skënderbeu2
KS Kastrioti1
W
Lliria Fushe-Kruje
22.03.26
KP: Iliria Fushë-Krujë1
KF Laçi1
D
18.03.26
KP: KS Pogradeci3
Iliria Fushë-Krujë0
L
14.03.26
KP: Iliria Fushë-Krujë1
KS Kastrioti0
W
07.03.26
KP: KS Burreli0
Iliria Fushë-Krujë0
D
01.03.26
KP: Iliria Fushë-Krujë1
FK Kukësi1
D
22.02.26
KP: Iliria Fushë-Krujë1
KF Besa Kavajë0
W
15.02.26
KP: Iliria Fushë-Krujë2
KF Lushnja1
W
08.02.26
KP: KS Burreli1
Iliria Fushë-Krujë1
D
31.01.26
KP: Iliria Fushë-Krujë2
Apolonia Fier0
W
24.01.26
KP: Korabi Peshkopi2
Iliria Fushë-Krujë1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 4th April 2026, Skenderbeu host Lliria Fushe-Kruje in Albania Kategoria E Pare. Our analysis desk recommends Skenderbeu to win as the standout selection.

Skenderbeu arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Lliria Fushe-Kruje are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 4D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Skenderbeu, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Lliria Fushe-Kruje's 0, with 5 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: skenderbeu to win at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Albania Kategoria E Pare game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.32. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 4 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Skenderbeu vs Lliria Fushe-Kruje?
Our selection is 1 — Skenderbeu to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 43%.
What is Skenderbeu's current form?
Skenderbeu have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Lliria Fushe-Kruje been performing recently?
Lliria Fushe-Kruje have recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Skenderbeu lead with 0 wins versus Lliria Fushe-Kruje's 0, with 5 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 0 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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