LOST Case LOST Dyn. Kyiv 0-1 Karpaty Lviv
Fixture Case File · Ref V
D

Dyn. Kyiv

Home Side
W W W W W
9W 0D 1L → Holding Steady
VS
0-1
K
Karpaty Lviv
Away Side
W W D L L
3W 2D 5L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
67%
Saturday, 4th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Dyn. Kyiv to win
Dyn. Kyiv 50%
Draw 30%
Karpaty Lviv 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob71.4%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-4.4%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBD<<<<K<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<K<<<<<<<L<<<<<<<<B9BD600734DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 4 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Dyn. Kyiv to win
1.40
Over 1.5 Goals80% Dyn. Kyiv Clean Sheet60%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Dyn. Kyiv vs Karpaty Lviv Competition: Ukraine Premier League Date: Saturday, 4th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Dyn. Kyiv to win) Odds: 1.40 Confidence: 67% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: Dyn. Kyiv Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: B9BD60073
Head to Head
Record
2
Dyn. Kyiv
1
Draws
0
Karpaty Lviv
3
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Dyn. Kyiv won 2 of the last 3 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Dyn. Kyiv
Metric
Karpaty Lviv
2.6
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.2
60%
Clean Sheets
30%
9-0-1
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
90%
30%
3
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
D0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 5.5%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
D1
1-0 9.9%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 5.5%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
D2
2-0 9.5%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
D3
3-0 6.0%
3-1 6.3%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
D4
4-0 2.8%
4-1 3.0%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
D5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.1%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(9.9%) 2-1(9.9%) 2-0(9.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing D=Home goals ↓   K=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Dyn. Kyiv Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Karpaty Lviv Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Dyn. Kyiv
Overall
9.0
Scoring
8.7
Defence
7.7
Karpaty Lviv
Overall
3.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%
Home Win & BTTS No 41%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 38%
Home Win & Under 2.5 31%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
27.09.25
Premier League: Karpaty Lviv3
Dynamo Kyiv3
23.02.25
Premier League: Dynamo Kyiv2
Karpaty Lviv0
17.08.24
Premier League: Karpaty Lviv1
Dynamo Kyiv3
Recent Form
Dyn. Kyiv
19.03.26
PL: FC Oleksandriya0
Dynamo Kyiv5
W
13.03.26
PL: Dynamo Kyiv2
Obolon Kyiv1
W
08.03.26
PL: Polissya Zhytomyr1
Dynamo Kyiv2
W
03.03.26
CUP: Dynamo Kyiv2
Inhulets0
W
27.02.26
PL: Dynamo Kyiv4
Epitsentr Dunaivtsi0
W
20.02.26
PL: Dynamo Kyiv1
Rukh Vynnyky0
W
14.02.26
Friendly: Dynamo Kyiv2
RFS0
W
14.02.26
Friendly: Dynamo Kyiv5
Zimbru Chisinau3
W
09.02.26
Friendly: Dynamo Kyiv2
Iberia 19990
W
09.02.26
Friendly: Dynamo Kyiv2
Kudrivka1
W
Karpaty Lviv
22.03.26
PL: Karpaty Lviv4
Obolon Kyiv0
W
13.03.26
PL: SC Poltava0
Karpaty Lviv4
W
08.03.26
PL: Karpaty Lviv1
Kudrivka1
D
01.03.26
PL: Karpaty Lviv0
Kolos Kovalivka1
L
22.02.26
PL: Shakhtar Donetsk3
Karpaty Lviv0
L
13.02.26
Friendly: Karpaty Lviv1
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger0
W
08.02.26
Friendly: Karpaty Lviv1
Stjarnan2
L
07.02.26
Friendly: Karpaty Lviv0
GAIS1
L
29.01.26
Friendly: Karpaty Lviv1
Värnamo1
D
28.01.26
Friendly: Karpaty Lviv2
Odense3
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 4th April 2026, Dyn. Kyiv host Karpaty Lviv in Ukraine Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Dyn. Kyiv to win as the standout selection.

Dyn. Kyiv arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Karpaty Lviv are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Dyn. Kyiv, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Karpaty Lviv's 0, with 1 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: dyn. kyiv to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Ukraine Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.40. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 4 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Dyn. Kyiv vs Karpaty Lviv?
Our selection is 1 — Dyn. Kyiv to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 67%.
What is Dyn. Kyiv's current form?
Dyn. Kyiv have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Karpaty Lviv been performing recently?
Karpaty Lviv have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Dyn. Kyiv lead with 2 wins versus Karpaty Lviv's 0, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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