WON Case WON Egnatia 3-0 Bylis
Fixture Case File · Ref V
E

Egnatia

Home Side
D D W D L
4W 4D 2L ▲ Trending Up
VS
3-0
B
Bylis
Away Side
W L W L D
3W 2D 5L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
55%
Saturday, 4th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Egnatia to win
Egnatia 50%
Draw 30%
Bylis 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob74.1%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-19.1%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBE<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<3F3F15C9C4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 4 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Egnatia to win
1.35
Under 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Egnatia vs Bylis Competition: Albania Superiore Date: Saturday, 4th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Egnatia to win) Odds: 1.35 Confidence: 55% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Ledger Ref: 3F3F15C9C
Head to Head
Record
8
Egnatia
2
Draws
0
Bylis
10
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Egnatia won 8 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Egnatia
Metric
Bylis
0.9
Goals For / Game
0.9
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.1
50%
Clean Sheets
20%
4-4-2
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
40%
30%
1.8
Avg Goals
50%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
E0
0-0 16.5%
0-1 13.2%
0-2 5.3%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
E1
1-0 16.5%
1-1 13.2%
1-2 5.3%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
E2
2-0 8.3%
2-1 6.6%
2-2 2.6%
2-3 0.7%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
E3
3-0 2.8%
3-1 2.2%
3-2 0.9%
3-3 0.2%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
E4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(16.5%) 2-0(8.3%) 2-1(6.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing E=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Egnatia Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Bylis Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Egnatia
Overall
5.2
Scoring
3.0
Defence
7.7
Bylis
Overall
3.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 17%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 17%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 20%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 20%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
24.01.26
Superliga: KF Bylis2
KF Egnatia2
22.11.25
Superliga: KF Egnatia5
KF Bylis1
13.09.25
Superliga: KF Bylis0
KF Egnatia1
31.03.25
Superliga: KF Bylis0
KF Egnatia2
26.02.25
Cup: KF Egnatia2
KF Bylis2
05.02.25
Cup: KF Bylis1
KF Egnatia3
31.01.25
Superliga: KF Egnatia2
KF Bylis1
24.11.24
Superliga: KF Bylis0
KF Egnatia2
15.09.24
Superliga: KF Egnatia4
KF Bylis0
06.05.23
Superliga: KF Egnatia2
KF Bylis0
Recent Form
Egnatia
20.03.26
SL: AF Elbasani0
Egnatia0
D
13.03.26
SL: Egnatia0
Vllaznia0
D
09.03.26
SL: Egnatia4
Teuta2
W
04.03.26
CUP: Egnatia0
Teuta0
D
28.02.26
SL: Partizani2
Egnatia0
L
20.02.26
SL: Egnatia1
Dinamo Tirana0
W
14.02.26
SL: Vora1
Egnatia1
D
10.02.26
CUP: Teuta1
Egnatia2
W
06.02.26
SL: Flamurtari0
Egnatia1
W
01.02.26
SL: Egnatia0
KF Tirana1
L
Bylis
21.03.26
SL: Bylis2
Flamurtari1
W
14.03.26
SL: KF Tirana1
Bylis0
L
08.03.26
SL: Bylis1
Vora0
W
04.03.26
CUP: Vllaznia2
Bylis1
L
28.02.26
SL: AF Elbasani1
Bylis1
D
21.02.26
SL: Bylis2
Vllaznia1
W
14.02.26
SL: Teuta2
Bylis1
L
10.02.26
CUP: Bylis0
Vllaznia1
L
06.02.26
SL: Bylis1
Partizani2
L
31.01.26
SL: Dinamo Tirana0
Bylis0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 4th April 2026, Egnatia host Bylis in Albania Superiore. Our analysis desk recommends Egnatia to win as the standout selection.

Egnatia arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Bylis are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Egnatia, who lead the head-to-head with 8 wins to Bylis's 0, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: egnatia to win at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Albania Superiore game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.35. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 4 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Egnatia vs Bylis?
Our selection is 1 — Egnatia to win, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 55%.
What is Egnatia's current form?
Egnatia have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Bylis been performing recently?
Bylis have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Egnatia lead with 8 wins versus Bylis's 0, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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