WON Case WON Portuguesa U20 3-0 Itapirense U20
Fixture Case File · Ref V
P

Portuguesa U20

Home Side
W L L W W
5W 2D 3L ▲ Trending Up
VS
3-0
I
Itapirense U20
Away Side
L L L W W
3W 1D 6L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
59%
Thursday, 11th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Portuguesa U20 to win
Portuguesa U20 50%
Draw 30%
Itapirense U20 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob75.2%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-16.2%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBP<<<<<<<<<<U20<<<<<<<<I<<<<<<<<<<U20<<<97B8F40D04DFB2607222M2607229<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 12 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
1
Portuguesa U20
0
Draws
0
Itapirense U20
1
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Portuguesa U20 won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Portuguesa U20
Metric
Itapirense U20
1.7
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.1
Goals Against / Game
2.2
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
5-2-3
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate
50%
30%
3
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
I0
I1
I2
I3
I4
I5
P0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 5.2%
0-2 2.6%
0-3 0.9%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
P1
1-0 10.2%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 5.1%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 10.0%
2-1 10.0%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 6.5%
3-1 6.5%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 3.2%
4-1 3.2%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 1.2%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.2%) 2-0(10.0%) 2-1(10.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing P=Home goals ↓   I=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Portuguesa U20 Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Itapirense U20 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Portuguesa U20
Overall
5.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
6.3
Itapirense U20
Overall
3.3
Scoring
3.0
Defence
2.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 29%
Home Win & Under 2.5 24%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
07.01.25CPH
Itapirense U200
Portuguesa U204
Recent Form
Portuguesa U20
05.06.26PAU
Jabaquara U201
Portuguesa U202
W
14.01.26CPH
Sao Paulo U202
Portuguesa U200
L
10.01.26CPH
Portuguesa U200
Operario PR U201
L
07.01.26CPH
Paulinia FU U201
Portuguesa U203
W
04.01.26CPH
Vila Nova FC U200
Portuguesa U201
W
13.09.25PAU
Portuguesa U201
Referencia U202
L
05.09.25PAU
Referencia U200
Portuguesa U200
D
12.08.25PAU
Portuguesa U202
Santo Andre U201
W
06.08.25PAU
Aracatuba FC U201
Portuguesa U206
W
27.07.25PAU
Portuguesa U202
Referencia U202
D
Itapirense U20
05.06.26PAU
Itapirense U200
Ferroviaria U202
L
12.09.25PAU
RB Bragantino U206
Itapirense U201
L
03.09.25PAU
Itapirense U201
RB Bragantino U203
L
12.08.25PAU
Sao Caetano U201
Itapirense U203
W
06.08.25PAU
Itapirense U201
Ponte Preta U200
W
25.07.25PAU
EC Sao Bernardo U205
Itapirense U201
L
18.07.25PAU
Itapirense U200
Mirassol U200
D
11.07.25PAU
Osasco Audax U204
Itapirense U201
L
04.07.25PAU
Itapirense U201
Aguai U200
W
25.06.25PAU
Inter de Limeira U201
Itapirense U200
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 11th June 2026, Portuguesa U20 host Itapirense U20 in Brazil Paulista U20. Our analysis desk recommends Portuguesa U20 to win as the standout selection.

Portuguesa U20 arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Itapirense U20 are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Portuguesa U20, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Itapirense U20's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: portuguesa u20 to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Brazil Paulista U20 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.33. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 12 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Portuguesa U20 vs Itapirense U20?
Our selection is 1 — Portuguesa U20 to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 59%.
What is Portuguesa U20's current form?
Portuguesa U20 have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Itapirense U20 been performing recently?
Itapirense U20 have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Portuguesa U20 lead with 1 wins versus Itapirense U20's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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