WON Case WON Ulfstind 1-0 Floya
Fixture Case File · Ref V
U

Ulfstind

Home Side
L L L L L
1W 1D 8L ▲ Trending Up
VS
1-0
F
Floya
Away Side
L W W W W
6W 3D 1L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
53%
Thursday, 11th June 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Floya to win
Ulfstind 20%
Draw 30%
Floya 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob75.8%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-22.8%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBU<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<F<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<96121CA5D4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 12 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — Floya to win
1.32
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes80%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Ulfstind vs Floya Competition: Norway Div 3 G5 Date: Thursday, 11th June 2026 Pick: 2 (Floya to win) Odds: 1.32 Confidence: 53% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS — Yes (80%) Ledger Ref: 96121CA5D
Head to Head
Record
1
Ulfstind
1
Draws
2
Floya
4
Meetings
4.8
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Neutral Floya won 2 of 4 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Ulfstind
Metric
Floya
1.7
Goals For / Game
2.5
2.9
Goals Against / Game
1.4
0%
Clean Sheets
10%
1-1-8
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate
10%
60%
4.3
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
80%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
U0
0-0 1.4%
0-1 3.9%
0-2 5.2%
0-3 4.7%
0-4 3.2%
0-5 1.7%
U1
1-0 2.2%
1-1 6.0%
1-2 8.1%
1-3 7.3%
1-4 4.9%
1-5 2.6%
U2
2-0 1.7%
2-1 4.6%
2-2 6.3%
2-3 5.6%
2-4 3.8%
2-5 2.1%
U3
3-0 0.9%
3-1 2.4%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 2.9%
3-4 2.0%
3-5 1.1%
U4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.9%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 1.1%
4-4 0.8%
4-5 0.4%
U5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 1-2(8.1%) 1-3(7.3%) 2-3(5.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing U=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Ulfstind Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Floya Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Ulfstind
Overall
1.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
0.3
Floya
Overall
6.9
Scoring
8.3
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Home Win & BTTS No 2%
Draw & BTTS Yes 18%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 54%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 9%
Home Win & Under 2.5 2%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 54%
Away Win & Under 2.5 13%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.10.25D3
Ulfstind4
Floya2
03.04.25D3
Floya2
Ulfstind0
20.10.24DIV
Ulfstind4
Floya4
28.04.24DIV
Floya3
Ulfstind0
Recent Form
Ulfstind
30.05.26DIV
Skjervoy2
Ulfstind0
L
25.05.26DIV
Ulfstind1
Finnsnes3
L
14.05.26DIV
Ulfstind1
Stromsgodset 23
L
09.05.26DIV
Bossekop2
Ulfstind1
L
02.05.26DIV
Ulfstind3
Kongsvinger 24
L
25.04.26DIV
Skjetten5
Ulfstind3
L
18.04.26DIV
Alta4
Ulfstind0
L
12.04.26DIV
Ulfstind5
Skedsmo2
W
06.04.26DIV
Fauske Sprint3
Ulfstind3
D
26.10.25D3
Skjervoy1
Ulfstind0
L
Floya
30.05.26DIV
Floya2
Skedsmo3
L
23.05.26DIV
Bossekop2
Floya5
W
14.05.26DIV
Floya3
Kongsvinger 21
W
09.05.26DIV
Skjetten1
Floya3
W
02.05.26DIV
Floya2
Harstad1
W
25.04.26DIV
Floya4
Skjervoy1
W
19.04.26DIV
Tromso 22
Floya3
W
11.04.26DIV
Floya0
Alta0
D
06.04.26DIV
Finnsnes2
Floya2
D
26.10.25D3
Floya1
Funnefoss/Vormsund1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 11th June 2026, Ulfstind host Floya in Norway Div 3 G5. Our analysis desk recommends Floya to win as the standout selection.

Ulfstind arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Floya are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 3D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Ulfstind, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Floya's 2, with 1 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: floya to win at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Norway Div 3 G5 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.32. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 12 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Ulfstind vs Floya?
Our selection is 2 — Floya to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Ulfstind's current form?
Ulfstind have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches.
How has Floya been performing recently?
Floya have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Ulfstind lead with 1 wins versus Floya's 2, with 1 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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