WON Case WON Poland W 0-2 France W
Fixture Case File · Ref V
P

Poland W

Home Side
L L L D W
4W 2D 4L ▼ Trending Down
VS
0-2
F
France W
Away Side
D L W W D
4W 3D 2L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
61%
Friday, 5th June 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on France W to win
Poland W 20%
Draw 30%
France W 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob82.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-21.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBP<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<<<F<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<C55CB4AA84DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 6 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — France W to win
1.21
Over 2.5 Goals74% BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Poland W vs France W Competition: Euro WCQ Women Date: Friday, 5th June 2026 Pick: 2 (France W to win) Odds: 1.21 Confidence: 61% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (74%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: C55CB4AA8
Head to Head
Record
0
Poland W
0
Draws
4
France W
4
Meetings
4.5
Avg Goals
25%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing France W won 4 of 4 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Poland W
Metric
France W
1.7
Goals For / Game
2.1
1.7
Goals Against / Game
1.4
30%
Clean Sheets
0%
4-2-4
W — D — L
4-3-2
Win Rate
40%
44%
3.5
Avg Goals
79%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
P0
0-0 3.2%
0-1 6.0%
0-2 5.7%
0-3 3.6%
0-4 1.7%
0-5 0.7%
P1
1-0 4.9%
1-1 9.4%
1-2 8.9%
1-3 5.6%
1-4 2.7%
1-5 1.0%
P2
2-0 3.8%
2-1 7.3%
2-2 6.9%
2-3 4.4%
2-4 2.1%
2-5 0.8%
P3
3-0 2.0%
3-1 3.7%
3-2 3.6%
3-3 2.3%
3-4 1.1%
3-5 0.4%
P4
4-0 0.8%
4-1 1.5%
4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.2%
P5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 1-2(8.9%) 0-1(6.0%) 0-2(5.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing P=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Poland W Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
France W Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Poland W
Overall
4.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
4.3
France W
Overall
5.4
Scoring
7.0
Defence
5.2
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Home Win & BTTS No 12%
Draw & BTTS Yes 16%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 27%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 30%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
07.03.26WC
France W4
Poland1
25.10.13FI
France W6
Poland0
24.08.11FI
France W2
Poland0
19.11.10FI
France W5
Poland0
Recent Form
Poland W
18.04.26WC
Ireland W1
Poland W0
L
14.04.26WC
Poland W2
Ireland W3
L
07.03.26WC
France W4
Poland W1
L
03.03.26WC
Poland W2
Netherlands W2
D
02.12.25FI
Poland W3
Latvia W0
W
28.11.25FI
Poland W1
Slovenia W0
W
28.10.25FI
Wales W2
Poland W5
W
24.10.25FI
Poland W0
Netherlands W0
D
12.07.25EUR
Poland W3
Denmark W2
W
08.07.25EUR
Poland W0
Sweden W3
L
France W
18.04.26WC
France W1
Netherlands W1
D
14.04.26WC
Netherlands W2
France W1
L
07.03.26WC
France W4
Poland W1
W
03.03.26WC
Ireland W1
France W2
W
02.12.25UNL
Sweden W2
France W2
D
28.11.25UNL
France W2
Sweden W1
W
28.10.25UNL
France W2
Germany W2
D
24.10.25UNL
Germany W1
France W0
L
13.07.25EUR
Netherlands W2
France W5
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 5th June 2026, Poland W host France W in Euro WCQ Women. Our analysis desk recommends France W to win as the standout selection.

Poland W arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

France W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 3D 2L across 9 matches.

Historical meetings favour Poland W, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to France W's 4, with 0 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 25% of those meetings.

Our verdict: france w to win at odds of 1.21 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Euro WCQ Women game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.21. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 6 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Poland W vs France W?
Our selection is 2 — France W to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is Poland W's current form?
Poland W have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has France W been performing recently?
France W have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from 9 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Poland W lead with 0 wins versus France W's 4, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 25%.
⚠️
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