WON Case WON Nassaji 2-0 Shenavarsazi Qeshm
Fixture Case File · Ref V
N

Nassaji

Home Side
W W W D W
5W 3D 2L ▼ Trending Down
VS
2-0
S
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
Away Side
L L D L W
2W 4D 4L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
64%
Tuesday, 9th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Nassaji to win
Nassaji 60%
Draw 20%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob76.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-12.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBN<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<S<<<<<<<<<<<<Q<<<B471EB3BF4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 10 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Nassaji to win
1.31
Under 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Nassaji vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm Competition: Iran Azadegan League Date: Tuesday, 9th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Nassaji to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 64% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Ledger Ref: B471EB3BF
Head to Head
Record
1
Nassaji
0
Draws
0
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
1
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Nassaji won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Nassaji
Metric
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
1.4
Goals For / Game
0.6
0.7
Goals Against / Game
0.9
50%
Clean Sheets
40%
5-3-2
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
50%
20%
1.8
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
N0
0-0 16.5%
0-1 10.7%
0-2 3.5%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
N1
1-0 19.0%
1-1 12.4%
1-2 4.0%
1-3 0.9%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
N2
2-0 10.9%
2-1 7.1%
2-2 2.3%
2-3 0.5%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
N3
3-0 4.2%
3-1 2.7%
3-2 0.9%
3-3 0.2%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
N4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 0.8%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
N5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(19.0%) 2-0(10.9%) 2-1(7.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing N=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Nassaji Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Shenavarsazi Qeshm Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Nassaji
Overall
5.9
Scoring
4.7
Defence
7.7
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
Overall
3.2
Scoring
2.0
Defence
7.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 18%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 17%
Home Win & Under 2.5 31%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 21%
Away Win & Over 2.5 7%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
08.11.25AL
Shenavarsazi Qeshm0
Nassaji Mazandaran3
Recent Form
Nassaji
02.06.26AL
Nassaji Mazandaran2
Damash Gilan0
W
27.05.26AL
Mes Kerman1
Nassaji Mazandaran2
W
21.05.26AL
Nassaji Mazandaran2
Navad Urmia0
W
15.05.26AL
Besat Kermanshah0
Nassaji Mazandaran0
D
22.02.26AL
Nassaji Mazandaran3
Saipa1
W
15.02.26AL
Niroye Zamini0
Nassaji Mazandaran0
D
09.02.26AL
Nassaji Mazandaran2
Shahrdari Noshahr0
W
03.02.26AL
Sanat Naft2
Nassaji Mazandaran1
L
27.01.26AL
Nassaji Mazandaran1
Pars Janoobi Jam2
L
20.01.26AL
Naft Bandar Abbas1
Nassaji Mazandaran1
D
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
02.06.26AL
Shenavarsazi Qeshm1
Saipa2
L
27.05.26AL
Besat Kermanshah2
Shenavarsazi Qeshm0
L
21.05.26AL
Shenavarsazi Qeshm0
Niroye Zamini0
D
14.05.26AL
Navad Urmia1
Shenavarsazi Qeshm0
L
22.02.26AL
Shenavarsazi Qeshm1
Sanat Naft0
W
15.02.26AL
Naft Bandar Abbas0
Shenavarsazi Qeshm0
D
08.02.26AL
Shenavarsazi Qeshm1
Pars Janoobi Jam2
L
02.02.26AL
Mes Kerman1
Shenavarsazi Qeshm2
W
26.01.26AL
Shenavarsazi Qeshm1
Shahrdari Noshahr1
D
20.01.26AL
Fard0
Shenavarsazi Qeshm0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 9th June 2026, Nassaji host Shenavarsazi Qeshm in Iran Azadegan League. Our analysis desk recommends Nassaji to win as the standout selection.

Nassaji arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Shenavarsazi Qeshm are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Nassaji, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Shenavarsazi Qeshm's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: nassaji to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Iran Azadegan League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.31. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 10 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Nassaji vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm?
Our selection is 1 — Nassaji to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 64%.
What is Nassaji's current form?
Nassaji have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Shenavarsazi Qeshm been performing recently?
Shenavarsazi Qeshm have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Nassaji lead with 1 wins versus Shenavarsazi Qeshm's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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