WON Case WON Croatia W 6-0 Bulgaria W
Fixture Case File · Ref V
C

Croatia W

Home Side
W W W L W
7W 0D 3L → Holding Steady
VS
6-0
B
Bulgaria W
Away Side
W L L W L
2W 3D 5L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
70%
Tuesday, 9th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Croatia W to win
Croatia W 60%
Draw 20%
Bulgaria W 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob81.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-11.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBC<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<<B<<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<C5C889B324DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 10 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Croatia W to win
1.23
Croatia W Clean Sheet60%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Croatia W vs Bulgaria W Competition: Euro WCQ Women Date: Tuesday, 9th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Croatia W to win) Odds: 1.23 Confidence: 70% Also: Croatia W Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: C5C889B32
Head to Head
Record
2
Croatia W
0
Draws
0
Bulgaria W
2
Meetings
2.5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Croatia W won 2 of the last 2 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Croatia W
Metric
Bulgaria W
2.2
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.4
60%
Clean Sheets
30%
7-0-3
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
70%
20%
2.9
Avg Goals
60%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
C0
0-0 5.5%
0-1 6.1%
0-2 3.3%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
C1
1-0 9.9%
1-1 10.9%
1-2 6.0%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
C2
2-0 8.9%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
C3
3-0 5.4%
3-1 5.9%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
C4
4-0 2.4%
4-1 2.7%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
C5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(9.9%) 2-1(9.8%) 2-0(8.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing C=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Croatia W Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Bulgaria W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Croatia W
Overall
7.0
Scoring
7.3
Defence
7.3
Bulgaria W
Overall
2.9
Scoring
4.7
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Home Win & BTTS No 40%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
03.03.26WC
Bulgaria W0
Croatia1
17.06.19FI
Bulgaria W1
Croatia3
Recent Form
Croatia W
05.06.26WC
Kosovo W0
Croatia W1
W
18.04.26WC
Croatia W9
Gibraltar W0
W
14.04.26WC
Gibraltar W0
Croatia W1
W
07.03.26WC
Croatia W0
Kosovo W1
L
03.03.26WC
Bulgaria W0
Croatia W1
W
01.12.25FI
Malta W0
Croatia W3
W
28.11.25FI
Malta W3
Croatia W2
L
27.10.25FI
Croatia W2
Montenegro W1
W
24.10.25FI
Croatia W1
Montenegro W3
L
03.06.25UNL
Croatia W2
Ukraine W0
W
Bulgaria W
05.06.26WC
Bulgaria W3
Gibraltar W1
W
18.04.26WC
Kosovo W2
Bulgaria W1
L
14.04.26WC
Bulgaria W1
Kosovo W3
L
07.03.26WC
Gibraltar W0
Bulgaria W5
W
03.03.26WC
Bulgaria W0
Croatia W1
L
03.06.25UNL
Bulgaria W0
Estonia W1
L
08.04.25UNL
Israel W3
Bulgaria W3
D
04.04.25UNL
Estonia W0
Bulgaria W0
D
21.02.25UNL
Bulgaria W1
Israel W3
L
16.07.24EUR
Bulgaria W0
Kazakhstan W0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 9th June 2026, Croatia W host Bulgaria W in Euro WCQ Women. Our analysis desk recommends Croatia W to win as the standout selection.

Croatia W arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Bulgaria W are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Croatia W, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Bulgaria W's 0, with 0 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: croatia w to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Euro WCQ Women game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.23. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 10 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Croatia W vs Bulgaria W?
Our selection is 1 — Croatia W to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 70%.
What is Croatia W's current form?
Croatia W have won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Bulgaria W been performing recently?
Bulgaria W have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Croatia W lead with 2 wins versus Bulgaria W's 0, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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