LOST Case LOST Lech Poznan 2-2 Wisla Plock
Fixture Case File · Ref V
L

Lech Poznan

Home Side
W D W W W
7W 3D 0L ▲ Trending Up
VS
2-2
W
Wisla Plock
Away Side
L L L L W
4W 0D 6L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
59%
Saturday, 23rd May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Lech Poznan to win
Lech Poznan 50%
Draw 30%
Wisla Plock 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob76.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-17.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBL<<<<P<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<W<<<<<P<<<<<<<<<<4E399526A4DFB2609202M2609209<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 23 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
6
Lech Poznan
2
Draws
2
Wisla Plock
10
Meetings
2.6
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Lech Poznan won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Lech Poznan
Metric
Wisla Plock
2.1
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.6
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
7-3-0
W — D — L
4-0-6
Win Rate
70%
40%
2.7
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
W0
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
L0
0-0 7.1%
0-1 5.7%
0-2 2.3%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
L1
1-0 13.1%
1-1 10.5%
1-2 4.2%
1-3 1.1%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
L2
2-0 12.1%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 3.9%
2-3 1.0%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
L3
3-0 7.5%
3-1 6.0%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 3.5%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 1.3%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(13.1%) 2-0(12.1%) 2-1(9.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing L=Home goals ↓   W=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Lech Poznan Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Wisla Plock Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Lech Poznan
Overall
7.9
Scoring
7.0
Defence
7.3
Wisla Plock
Overall
4.0
Scoring
2.7
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 31%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 34%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 19%
Away Win & Under 2.5 13%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
30.11.25EKS
Wisla Plock0
Lech Poznan0
03.02.24CF
Lech Poznan4
Wisla Plock0
11.02.23EKS
Wisla Plock0
Lech Poznan1
31.07.22EKS
Lech Poznan1
Wisla Plock3
16.04.22EKS
Wisla Plock0
Lech Poznan1
22.10.21EKS
Lech Poznan4
Wisla Plock1
14.02.21EKS
Wisla Plock1
Lech Poznan0
30.08.20EKS
Lech Poznan2
Wisla Plock2
29.11.19EKS
Wisla Plock0
Lech Poznan2
26.07.19EKS
Lech Poznan4
Wisla Plock0
Recent Form
Lech Poznan
16.05.26EKS
Radomiak Radom1
Lech Poznan3
W
08.05.26EKS
Lech Poznan1
Arka Gdynia1
D
02.05.26EKS
Motor Lublin0
Lech Poznan1
W
26.04.26EKS
Lech Poznan4
Legia0
W
18.04.26EKS
Pogon Szczecin1
Lech Poznan2
W
12.04.26EKS
Lech Poznan3
GKS Katowice3
D
04.04.26EKS
Jagiellonia0
Lech Poznan0
D
22.03.26EKS
Lech Poznan4
Termalica B-B.1
W
19.03.26UECL
Shakhtar Donetsk1
Lech Poznan2
W
15.03.26EKS
Zaglebie0
Lech Poznan1
W
Wisla Plock
16.05.26EKS
Wisla Plock0
Gornik Zabrze1
L
10.05.26EKS
Wisla Plock0
Motor Lublin4
L
03.05.26EKS
Pogon Szczecin3
Wisla Plock0
L
26.04.26EKS
Wisla Plock0
Radomiak Radom1
L
19.04.26EKS
Termalica B-B.1
Wisla Plock3
W
10.04.26EKS
Wisla Plock1
Lechia Gdansk0
W
04.04.26EKS
GKS Katowice1
Wisla Plock0
L
21.03.26EKS
Jagiellonia1
Wisla Plock2
W
14.03.26EKS
Cracovia1
Wisla Plock2
W
09.03.26EKS
Wisla Plock0
Arka Gdynia3
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 23rd May 2026, Lech Poznan host Wisla Plock in Poland Ekstraklasa. Our analysis desk recommends Lech Poznan to win as the standout selection.

Lech Poznan arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Wisla Plock are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 0D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Lech Poznan, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Wisla Plock's 2, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: lech poznan to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Poland Ekstraklasa game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.31. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 23 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock?
Our selection is 1 — Lech Poznan to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 59%.
What is Lech Poznan's current form?
Lech Poznan have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Wisla Plock been performing recently?
Wisla Plock have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lech Poznan lead with 6 wins versus Wisla Plock's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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