LOST Case LOST Kairat Almaty 0-0 Kaisar Kyzylorda
Fixture Case File ยท Ref V โšฝ
K

Kairat Almaty

Home Side
W D W W L
6W 3D 1L โ–ฒ Trending Up
VS
0-0
K
Kaisar Kyzylorda
Away Side
W W L L D
4W 3D 3L โ†’ Holding Steady
โš‘
MODERATE
50%
Saturday, 23rd May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Kairat Almaty to win
Kairat Almaty 50%
Draw 30%
Kaisar Kyzylorda 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob75.8%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-25.8%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBK<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<K<<<<<<K<<<<<<<<<EA794620D4DFB2609202M2609209<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst ยท Last checked 23 May 2026
โœ“ Data-Audited โœ“ Independently Checked
โšก
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 โ€” Kairat Almaty to win
1.32
Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS โ€” Yes70%
๐Ÿ“‹ Case Slip / Combo Builder
Kairat Almaty vs Kaisar Kyzylorda Competition: Kazakhstan Premier League Date: Saturday, 23rd May 2026 Pick: 1 (Kairat Almaty to win) Odds: 1.32 Confidence: 50% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Also: BTTS โ€” Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: EA794620D
โš”
Head to Head
Record
4
Kairat Almaty
3
Draws
3
Kaisar Kyzylorda
10
Meetings
1.8
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Kairat Almaty won 4 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
๐Ÿ“Š
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kairat Almaty
Metric
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.2
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.3
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-3-1
W โ€” D โ€” L
4-3-3
Win Rate
60%
40%
2.7
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
๐ŸŽฏ
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
K0
0-0 7.1%
0-1 7.4%
0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
K1
1-0 11.3%
1-1 11.9%
1-2 6.2%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
K2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
K3
3-0 4.8%
3-1 5.1%
3-2 2.7%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
K4
4-0 1.9%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.3%) 2-1(9.5%) 2-0(9.0%)
โ–  Best match โ–  Possible โ–  Low ยท โ–  Contradicts filing K=Home goals โ†“   K=Away โ†’
๐Ÿ“‰
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Kairat Almaty Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Kaisar Kyzylorda Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
๐Ÿ“ˆ
Team Ratings
Grades
Kairat Almaty
Overall
6.9 โ€”
Scoring
6.3 โ€”
Defence
7.0 โ€”
Kaisar Kyzylorda
Overall
4.9 โ€”
Scoring
4.0 โ€”
Defence
5.7 โ€”
๐Ÿ”€
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 16%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 25%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
๐Ÿงฎ
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
โ€”
Kelly %
โ€”
Stake
โ€”
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
๐Ÿ”Ž How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter โ€” a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee โ€” it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

๐Ÿ“ Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds โ€” no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status โ€” nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
๐Ÿ“œ
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
06.05.26PL
Kaisar Kyzylorda1
Kairat Almaty2
29.04.26CUP
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Kairat Almaty1
19.07.25PL
Kairat Almaty1
Kaisar Kyzylorda1
20.04.25PL
Kaisar Kyzylorda0
Kairat Almaty0
21.09.24PL
Kairat Almaty1
Kaisar Kyzylorda0
27.04.24PL
Kaisar Kyzylorda1
Kairat Almaty0
29.07.23PL
Kaisar Kyzylorda0
Kairat Almaty0
21.05.23PL
Kairat Almaty0
Kaisar Kyzylorda3
27.10.21CUP
Kaisar Kyzylorda0
Kairat Almaty2
22.09.21CUP
Kairat Almaty3
Kaisar Kyzylorda0
Recent Form
Kairat Almaty
17.05.26PL
Zhenis1
Kairat Almaty2
W
10.05.26PL
Ulytau1
Kairat Almaty1
D
06.05.26PL
Kaisar Kyzylorda1
Kairat Almaty2
W
02.05.26PL
Ertis Pavlodar0
Kairat Almaty1
W
29.04.26CUP
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Kairat Almaty1
L
26.04.26PL
Kairat Almaty2
Yelimay Semey2
D
18.04.26PL
Kairat Almaty2
Kaspij Aktau0
W
11.04.26PL
Tobol1
Kairat Almaty1
D
08.04.26CUP
Jaiyq1
Kairat Almaty3
W
05.04.26PL
Kairat Almaty4
FC Astana0
W
Kaisar Kyzylorda
17.05.26PL
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Tobol1
W
13.05.26CUP
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Tobol1
W
10.05.26PL
Aktobe3
Kaisar Kyzylorda0
L
06.05.26PL
Kaisar Kyzylorda1
Kairat Almaty2
L
02.05.26PL
Kaisar Kyzylorda1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan1
D
29.04.26CUP
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Kairat Almaty1
W
25.04.26PL
Okzhetpes1
Kaisar Kyzylorda1
D
19.04.26PL
Kaisar Kyzylorda1
Altai1
D
11.04.26PL
Atyrau2
Kaisar Kyzylorda0
L
08.04.26CUP
Talas0
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
W
๐Ÿ“
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 23rd May 2026, Kairat Almaty host Kaisar Kyzylorda in Kazakhstan Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Kairat Almaty to win as the standout selection.

Kairat Almaty arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Kaisar Kyzylorda are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 3D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kairat Almaty, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Kaisar Kyzylorda's 3, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kairat almaty to win at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Kazakhstan Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.32. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 23 May 2026
โ“
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kairat Almaty vs Kaisar Kyzylorda?
Our selection is 1 โ€” Kairat Almaty to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Kairat Almaty's current form?
Kairat Almaty have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Kaisar Kyzylorda been performing recently?
Kaisar Kyzylorda have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kairat Almaty lead with 4 wins versus Kaisar Kyzylorda's 3, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
โš ๏ธ
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