WON Case WON Brno 4-1 Ceske Budejovice
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

Brno

Home Side
D W D W W
7W 2D 1L ▼ Trending Down
VS
4-1
C
Ceske Budejovice
Away Side
L D W L L
3W 1D 6L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
51%
Saturday, 23rd May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Brno to win
Brno 50%
Draw 30%
Ceske Budejovice 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob74.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-23.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBB<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<C<<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<2862150464DFB2609112M2609119<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 23 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
3
Brno
1
Draws
6
Ceske Budejovice
10
Meetings
2.9
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Brno won 3 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Brno
Metric
Ceske Budejovice
1.5
Goals For / Game
1
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.3
50%
Clean Sheets
20%
7-2-1
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate
70%
30%
2.3
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
B0
0-0 10.0%
0-1 9.0%
0-2 4.1%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
B1
1-0 14.0%
1-1 12.6%
1-2 5.7%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
B2
2-0 9.8%
2-1 8.8%
2-2 4.0%
2-3 1.2%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
B3
3-0 4.6%
3-1 4.1%
3-2 1.9%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
B4
4-0 1.6%
4-1 1.4%
4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.0%) 2-0(9.8%) 2-1(8.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Brno Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Ceske Budejovice Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Brno
Overall
7.6
Scoring
5.0
Defence
7.3
Ceske Budejovice
Overall
3.3
Scoring
3.3
Defence
5.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%
Home Win & BTTS No 31%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 27%
Home Win & Under 2.5 34%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
18.07.25CHNL
Ceske Budejovice0
Brno2
26.04.231L
Brno1
Ceske Budejovice1
01.03.23CUP
Ceske Budejovice2
Brno1
05.11.221L
Ceske Budejovice3
Brno2
11.04.211L
Ceske Budejovice0
Brno2
06.12.201L
Brno1
Ceske Budejovice3
17.03.19CHNL
Ceske Budejovice3
Brno2
17.08.18CHNL
Brno2
Ceske Budejovice1
08.07.17CF
Brno0
Ceske Budejovice2
08.07.15CF
Brno0
Ceske Budejovice1
Recent Form
Brno
16.05.26CHNL
Kromeriz1
Brno1
D
10.05.26CHNL
Brno1
Vlasim0
W
06.05.26CHNL
Ostrava B1
Brno1
D
02.05.26CHNL
Brno3
Usti nad Labem0
W
26.04.26CHNL
Slavia Prague B0
Brno1
W
19.04.26CHNL
Jihlava1
Brno2
W
15.04.26CHNL
Brno1
Zizkov0
W
11.04.26CHNL
Opava4
Brno0
L
04.04.26CHNL
Brno2
Chrudim0
W
27.03.26CF
Brno3
Teplice1
W
Ceske Budejovice
16.05.26CHNL
Ceske Budejovice1
Chrudim2
L
09.05.26CHNL
Prostejov1
Ceske Budejovice1
D
06.05.26CHNL
Ceske Budejovice3
Jihlava1
W
01.05.26CHNL
Pribram2
Ceske Budejovice1
L
25.04.26CHNL
Artis Brno2
Ceske Budejovice1
L
19.04.26CHNL
Ceske Budejovice1
Kromeriz0
W
15.04.26CHNL
Taborsko1
Ceske Budejovice0
L
10.04.26CHNL
Ceske Budejovice1
Usti nad Labem2
L
05.04.26CHNL
Sparta Prague B0
Ceske Budejovice1
W
20.03.26CHNL
Ceske Budejovice0
Zizkov2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 23rd May 2026, Brno host Ceske Budejovice in Czech CHNL. Our analysis desk recommends Brno to win as the standout selection.

Brno arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Ceske Budejovice are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Brno, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Ceske Budejovice's 6, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: brno to win at odds of 1.34 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Czech CHNL game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.34. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 23 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Brno vs Ceske Budejovice?
Our selection is 1 — Brno to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 51%.
What is Brno's current form?
Brno have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ceske Budejovice been performing recently?
Ceske Budejovice have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Brno lead with 3 wins versus Ceske Budejovice's 6, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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