LOST Case LOST Al Hilal Omdurman 1-1 Marines
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Al Hilal Omdurman

Home Side
W W W L D
5W 2D 3L → Holding Steady
VS
1-1
M
Marines
Away Side
W D W D L
3W 5D 2L ▲ Trending Up
CAUTION
41%
Monday, 6th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Al Hilal Omdurman to win
Al Hilal Omdurman 50%
Draw 30%
Marines 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob78.7%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-37.7%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<H<<<<<O<<<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<C73C4B4A74DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 6 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Al Hilal Omdurman to win
1.27
Over 1.5 Goals85% BTTS — Yes75%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Al Hilal Omdurman vs Marines Competition: Rwanda Premier League Date: Monday, 6th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Al Hilal Omdurman to win) Odds: 1.27 Confidence: 41% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — Yes (75%) Ledger Ref: C73C4B4A7
Head to Head
Record
0
Al Hilal Omdurman
1
Draws
0
Marines
1
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Al Hilal Omdurman won 0 of the last 1 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Hilal Omdurman
Metric
Marines
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.6
1
Goals Against / Game
1.6
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
5-2-3
W — D — L
3-5-2
Win Rate
50%
30%
2.9
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
A0
0-0 5.5%
0-1 7.2%
0-2 4.7%
0-3 2.0%
0-4 0.7%
0-5 0.2%
A1
1-0 8.8%
1-1 11.4%
1-2 7.4%
1-3 3.2%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
A2
2-0 7.0%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 6.0%
2-3 2.6%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
A3
3-0 3.8%
3-1 4.9%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.2%) 1-0(8.8%) 2-0(7.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Hilal Omdurman Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Marines Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Hilal Omdurman
Overall
5.6
Scoring
5.3
Defence
6.7
Marines
Overall
4.5
Scoring
5.3
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 11%
Draw & BTTS Yes 23%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 15%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
21.12.25
Rwanda PL: Marines FC2
Al-Hilal Omdurman2
Recent Form
Al Hilal Omdurman
31.03.26
PL: Amagaju1
Al-Hilal2
W
28.03.26
PL: Rutsiro1
Al-Hilal2
W
25.03.26
PL: Bugesera0
Al-Hilal2
W
22.03.26
CAF CC: Al-Hilal0
RS Berkane1
L
14.03.26
CAF CC: RS Berkane1
Al-Hilal1
D
03.03.26
PL: Al-Hilal5
Gicumbi0
W
28.02.26
PL: Mukura Victory3
Al-Hilal1
L
25.02.26
PL: Rayon Sport1
Al-Hilal1
D
21.02.26
PL: Al-Hilal1
Gorilla0
W
17.02.26
PL: Al-Hilal1
Al-Merreikh2
L
Marines
21.03.26
PL: Marines FC3
Mukura Victory1
W
15.03.26
PL: Gorilla FC1
Marines FC1
D
10.03.26
PL: S.C. Kiyovu Sports1
Marines FC2
W
07.03.26
PL: Marines FC2
APR FC2
D
28.02.26
PL: Rutsiro FC5
Marines FC3
L
14.02.26
PL: Marines FC1
Gicumbi FC1
D
08.02.26
PL: Marines FC1
Al Merrikh SC1
D
30.01.26
PL: Amagaju FC1
Marines FC1
D
11.01.26
PL: Musanze FC3
Marines FC1
L
02.01.26
PL: Marines FC1
Amagaju FC0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Monday, 6th April 2026, Al Hilal Omdurman host Marines in Rwanda Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Al Hilal Omdurman to win as the standout selection.

Al Hilal Omdurman arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Marines are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 5D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Hilal Omdurman, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Marines's 0, with 1 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al hilal omdurman to win at odds of 1.27 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Rwanda Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.27. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 6 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Hilal Omdurman vs Marines?
Our selection is 1 — Al Hilal Omdurman to win, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 41%.
What is Al Hilal Omdurman's current form?
Al Hilal Omdurman have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Marines been performing recently?
Marines have recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Hilal Omdurman lead with 0 wins versus Marines's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
⚠️
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