WON Case WON St Patricks 2-0 Sligo Rovers
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

St Patricks

Home Side
W L D L W
4W 3D 3L ▲ Trending Up
VS
2-0
S
Sligo Rovers
Away Side
L L W L D
4W 2D 4L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
52%
Friday, 19th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on St Patricks to win
St Patricks 50%
Draw 30%
Sligo Rovers 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob82%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-30%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<P<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<S<<<<<R<<<<<<<<<<2F50DD19E4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 20 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
7
St Patricks
1
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing St Patricks won 7 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
St Patricks
Metric
Sligo Rovers
1.5
Goals For / Game
1.1
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.5
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-3-3
W — D — L
4-2-4
Win Rate
40%
40%
2.5
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S0
0-0 8.2%
0-1 8.2%
0-2 4.1%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
S1
1-0 12.3%
1-1 12.3%
1-2 6.2%
1-3 2.1%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
S2
2-0 9.2%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 4.6%
2-3 1.5%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
S3
3-0 4.6%
3-1 4.6%
3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 1.7%
4-1 1.7%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(12.3%) 2-0(9.2%) 2-1(9.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
St Patricks Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Sligo Rovers Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
St Patricks
Overall
4.9
Scoring
5.0
Defence
7.0
Sligo Rovers
Overall
4.6
Scoring
3.7
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 17%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.05.26PD
Sligo Rovers1
St. Patricks1
03.04.26PD
St. Patricks4
Sligo Rovers1
27.09.25PD
Sligo Rovers1
St. Patricks0
10.08.25PD
St. Patricks3
Sligo Rovers0
30.05.25PD
Sligo Rovers0
St. Patricks1
28.02.25PD
St. Patricks4
Sligo Rovers3
01.11.24PD
Sligo Rovers0
St. Patricks2
04.08.24PD
St. Patricks3
Sligo Rovers2
06.05.24PD
Sligo Rovers1
St. Patricks0
01.04.24PD
St. Patricks3
Sligo Rovers0
Recent Form
St Patricks
12.06.26PD
St. Patricks2
Drogheda0
W
29.05.26PD
Shamrock Rovers1
St. Patricks0
L
22.05.26PD
Derry City0
St. Patricks0
D
15.05.26PD
St. Patricks0
Shelbourne1
L
08.05.26PD
St. Patricks4
Waterford1
W
04.05.26PD
Sligo Rovers1
St. Patricks1
D
01.05.26PD
Galway2
St. Patricks2
D
24.04.26PD
St. Patricks3
Bohemians1
W
17.04.26PD
Drogheda1
St. Patricks3
W
10.04.26PD
St. Patricks0
Shamrock Rovers1
L
Sligo Rovers
12.06.26PD
Waterford4
Sligo Rovers0
L
29.05.26PD
Sligo Rovers1
Bohemians3
L
22.05.26PD
Shamrock Rovers1
Sligo Rovers2
W
16.05.26PD
Sligo Rovers1
Galway4
L
08.05.26PD
Shelbourne0
Sligo Rovers0
D
04.05.26PD
Sligo Rovers1
St. Patricks1
D
01.05.26PD
Drogheda1
Sligo Rovers0
L
25.04.26PD
Sligo Rovers2
Dundalk0
W
18.04.26PD
Sligo Rovers2
Waterford0
W
10.04.26PD
Bohemians1
Sligo Rovers2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 19th June 2026, St Patricks host Sligo Rovers in Ireland Premier Division. Our analysis desk recommends St Patricks to win as the standout selection.

St Patricks arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Sligo Rovers are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 2D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour St Patricks, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Sligo Rovers's 2, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: st patricks to win at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Ireland Premier Division game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.22. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 20 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for St Patricks vs Sligo Rovers?
Our selection is 1 — St Patricks to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 52%.
What is St Patricks's current form?
St Patricks have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Sligo Rovers been performing recently?
Sligo Rovers have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
St Patricks lead with 7 wins versus Sligo Rovers's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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