LOST Case LOST Belgrano 2 1-1 Atl Rafaela 2
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

Belgrano 2

Home Side
W W L W W
8W 0D 2L ▼ Trending Down
VS
1-1
A
Atl Rafaela 2
Away Side
L L L W L
1W 1D 8L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
62%
Tuesday, 9th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Belgrano 2 to win
Belgrano 2 50%
Draw 30%
Atl Rafaela 2 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob72.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-10.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBB<<<<<<<<2<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<R<<<<<<<2<<<<01FA66F104DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 10 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Belgrano 2 to win
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Belgrano 2 vs Atl Rafaela 2 Competition: Argentina Reserve League Date: Tuesday, 9th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Belgrano 2 to win) Odds: 1.38 Confidence: 62% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ledger Ref: 01FA66F10
Head to Head
Record
Neutral No head-to-head data found.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Belgrano 2
Metric
Atl Rafaela 2
2
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.2
Goals Against / Game
2.6
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
8-0-2
W — D — L
1-1-8
Win Rate
80%
10%
3.5
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
B0
0-0 3.2%
0-1 3.7%
0-2 2.1%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
B1
1-0 7.3%
1-1 8.4%
1-2 4.8%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
B2
2-0 8.4%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.1%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
B3
3-0 6.4%
3-1 7.4%
3-2 4.3%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 3.7%
4-1 4.3%
4-2 2.5%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
B5
5-0 1.7%
5-1 2.0%
5-2 1.1%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.7%) 2-0(8.4%) 3-1(7.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Belgrano 2 Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Atl Rafaela 2 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Belgrano 2
Overall
8.0
Scoring
6.7
Defence
6.0
Atl Rafaela 2
Overall
1.3
Scoring
3.7
Defence
1.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 55%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 4%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 59%
Home Win & Under 2.5 25%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 3%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Belgrano 2
05.06.26RL
Platense 20
Belgrano 22
W
27.05.26RL
Belgrano 21
Quilmes 20
W
21.05.26RL
Estudiantes L.P. 23
Belgrano 21
L
13.05.26RL
Belgrano 21
Central Cordoba 20
W
07.05.26RL
San Martin S.J. 21
Belgrano 22
W
29.04.26RL
Belgrano 24
Ind. Rivadavia 21
W
23.04.26RL
Talleres Cordoba 22
Belgrano 24
W
15.04.26RL
Deportivo Riestra 23
Belgrano 20
L
07.04.26RL
Belgrano 22
Colon Santa Fe 21
W
31.03.26RL
Belgrano 23
Lanus 21
W
Atl Rafaela 2
04.06.26RL
Atl. Rafaela 21
Lanus 27
L
27.05.26RL
Newells Old Boys 23
Atl. Rafaela 20
L
20.05.26RL
Atl. Rafaela 22
Defensa y Justicia 24
L
12.05.26RL
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 20
Atl. Rafaela 22
W
05.05.26RL
Atl. Rafaela 21
Huracan 22
L
29.04.26RL
Ferro 22
Atl. Rafaela 21
L
22.04.26RL
Atl. Rafaela 20
Sarmiento Junin 21
L
16.04.26RL
Atl. Rafaela 21
Boca Juniors 21
D
07.04.26RL
Independiente 23
Atl. Rafaela 22
L
31.03.26RL
Colon Santa Fe 23
Atl. Rafaela 21
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 9th June 2026, Belgrano 2 host Atl Rafaela 2 in Argentina Reserve League. Our analysis desk recommends Belgrano 2 to win as the standout selection.

Belgrano 2 arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Atl Rafaela 2 are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 1D 8L across 10 matches.

Our verdict: belgrano 2 to win at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Argentina Reserve League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.38. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 10 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Belgrano 2 vs Atl Rafaela 2?
Our selection is 1 — Belgrano 2 to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Belgrano 2's current form?
Belgrano 2 have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Atl Rafaela 2 been performing recently?
Atl Rafaela 2 have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game.
⚠️
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