Fixture Case File · Ref V
T

Toftir

Home Side
L W D L D
3W 2D 5L ▼ Trending Down
VS
PP
H
HB Torshavn
Away Side
L W L D W
3W 2D 5L ▲ Trending Up
CASE VERIFIED
75%
Monday, 25th May 2026 Case Verdict
Over 2.5
Filing on over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob71.9%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge+3.1%Value detected
Kelly %10.9%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBT<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<HB<T<<<<<<<<<<<<<DDD5F36884DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 26 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.39
Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals100% BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Toftir vs HB Torshavn Competition: Faroe Islands Premier League Date: Monday, 25th May 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.39 Confidence: 75% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (100%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: DDD5F3688
Head to Head
Record
2
Toftir
1
Draws
7
HB Torshavn
10
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral Over 2.5 in 50% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Toftir
Metric
HB Torshavn
1.8
Goals For / Game
1.5
2.5
Goals Against / Game
1.9
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
3-2-5
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
30%
30%
3.9
Avg Goals
100%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
H0
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
T0
0-0 2.1%
0-1 4.3%
0-2 4.3%
0-3 2.8%
0-4 1.4%
0-5 0.6%
T1
1-0 3.9%
1-1 7.9%
1-2 7.9%
1-3 5.3%
1-4 2.6%
1-5 1.1%
T2
2-0 3.6%
2-1 7.3%
2-2 7.3%
2-3 4.9%
2-4 2.4%
2-5 1.0%
T3
3-0 2.3%
3-1 4.5%
3-2 4.5%
3-3 3.0%
3-4 1.5%
3-5 0.6%
T4
4-0 1.0%
4-1 2.1%
4-2 2.1%
4-3 1.4%
4-4 0.7%
4-5 0.3%
T5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.3%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 1-1(7.9%) 1-2(7.9%) 2-1(7.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing T=Home goals ↓   H=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Toftir
Overall
3.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
1.7
HB Torshavn
Overall
3.6
Scoring
5.0
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Home Win & BTTS No 11%
Draw & BTTS Yes 18%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 29%
Home Win & Under 2.5 10%
Draw & Over 2.5 19%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 28%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
19.04.26PL
Toftir3
HB Torshavn1
03.10.25PL
HB Torshavn5
Toftir1
14.06.25PL
Toftir1
HB Torshavn4
07.03.25PL
HB Torshavn3
Toftir2
18.08.24PL
HB Torshavn1
Toftir0
28.06.24PL
Toftir1
HB Torshavn0
08.04.24PL
Toftir0
HB Torshavn1
04.11.23CUP
Toftir0
HB Torshavn1
30.09.23PL
HB Torshavn3
Toftir3
04.06.23PL
Toftir0
HB Torshavn2
Recent Form
Toftir
17.05.26PL
Toftir1
Klaksvik4
L
10.05.26PL
07 Vestur Sorvagur0
Toftir2
W
03.05.26PL
Toftir1
Streymur1
D
29.04.26CUP
Toftir0
Klaksvik3
L
26.04.26PL
Vikingur2
Toftir2
D
19.04.26PL
Toftir3
HB Torshavn1
W
15.04.26CUP
Toftir7
Midvagur0
W
11.04.26PL
Klaksvik6
Toftir1
L
04.04.26PL
Toftir1
NSI Runavik2
L
21.03.26PL
B36 Torshavn6
Toftir0
L
HB Torshavn
18.05.26PL
HB Torshavn3
Streymur4
L
14.05.26CUP
HB Torshavn2
Vikingur1
W
08.05.26PL
NSI Runavik2
HB Torshavn1
L
03.05.26PL
HB Torshavn1
AB Argir1
D
29.04.26CUP
HB Torshavn3
B36 Torshavn1
W
26.04.26PL
HB Torshavn0
Klaksvik2
L
19.04.26PL
Toftir3
HB Torshavn1
L
15.04.26CUP
HB Torshavn2
Sandur0
W
12.04.26PL
Streymur1
HB Torshavn2
W
06.04.26PL
HB Torshavn2
B36 Torshavn2
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Monday, 25th May 2026, Toftir host HB Torshavn in Faroe Islands Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Toftir arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

HB Torshavn are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Toftir, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to HB Torshavn's 7, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.39 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Faroe Islands Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is Over 2.5, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.39. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 26 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Toftir vs HB Torshavn?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.39. Tip confidence rating: 75%.
What is Toftir's current form?
Toftir have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has HB Torshavn been performing recently?
HB Torshavn have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Toftir lead with 2 wins versus HB Torshavn's 7, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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