LOST Case LOST Ogre United 1-1 Auda
Fixture Case File · Ref V
O

Ogre United

Home Side
D L L L D
2W 2D 6L ▲ Trending Up
VS
1-1
A
Auda
Away Side
L W W L W
5W 1D 4L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
50%
Friday, 17th April 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Auda to win
Ogre United 20%
Draw 30%
Auda 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob73.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-23.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBO<<<<U<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<81F19FAA94DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 18 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
Neutral No head-to-head data found.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Ogre United
Metric
Auda
0.9
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.5
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
2-2-6
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
20%
50%
2.5
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
O0
0-0 8.6%
0-1 10.8%
0-2 6.7%
0-3 2.8%
0-4 0.9%
0-5 0.2%
O1
1-0 10.4%
1-1 12.9%
1-2 8.1%
1-3 3.4%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
O2
2-0 6.2%
2-1 7.8%
2-2 4.9%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.2%
O3
3-0 2.5%
3-1 3.1%
3-2 1.9%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
O4
4-0 0.8%
4-1 0.9%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
O5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(10.8%) 1-2(8.1%) 0-2(6.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing O=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Ogre United Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Auda Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Ogre United
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.0
Auda
Overall
5.3
Scoring
4.3
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Home Win & BTTS No 11%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Away Win & BTTS No 26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 12%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 29%
Away Win & Under 2.5 29%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Ogre United
13.04.26Virsliga
Ogre United1
Grobina1
D
07.04.26Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils2
Ogre United1
L
03.04.26Virsliga
Ogre United1
Super Nova2
L
20.03.26Virsliga
Ogre United0
FK Liepaja1
L
15.03.26Virsliga
Ogre United1
Tukums 20001
D
06.03.26Virsliga
RFS2
Ogre United0
L
14.02.26Club Friendly
Zalgiris2
Ogre United1
L
07.02.26Club Friendly
Flora1
Ogre United0
L
08.11.25Nakotne Liga
Marupe0
Ogre United1
W
01.11.25Nakotne Liga
Ogre United3
Skanste0
W
Auda
12.04.26Virsliga
FK Auda2
BFC Daugavpils3
L
08.04.26Virsliga
FK Liepaja1
FK Auda2
W
04.04.26Virsliga
RFS0
FK Auda1
W
20.03.26Virsliga
FK Auda1
Riga FC2
L
14.03.26Virsliga
Grobina0
FK Auda2
W
08.03.26Virsliga
FK Auda2
Super Nova1
W
17.02.26Stella Cup
Riga FC4
FK Auda1
L
13.02.26Club Friendly
Zorya Luhansk3
FK Auda0
L
10.02.26Club Friendly
FK Auda1
Dinamo Tbilisi0
W
06.02.26Club Friendly
Vozdovac1
FK Auda1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 17th April 2026, Ogre United host Auda in Latvia Virsliga. Our analysis desk recommends Auda to win as the standout selection.

Ogre United arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Auda are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 4L across 10 matches.

Our verdict: auda to win at odds of 1.36 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Latvia Virsliga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.36. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 18 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Ogre United vs Auda?
Our selection is 2 — Auda to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Ogre United's current form?
Ogre United have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Auda been performing recently?
Auda have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game.
⚠️
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