WON Case WON Metalist Kharkiv 1-2 Bukovyna
Fixture Case File · Ref V
M

Metalist Kharkiv

Home Side
L W D W W
4W 2D 4L → Holding Steady
VS
1-2
B
Bukovyna
Away Side
W W W W W
10W 0D 0L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
68%
Friday, 17th April 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Bukovyna to win
Metalist Kharkiv 30%
Draw 20%
Bukovyna 50%
H Fair Odds3.33
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob74.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-6.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBM<<<<<<<<K<<<<<<<<<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<25B3F5D024DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 18 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — Bukovyna to win
1.34
Over 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Metalist Kharkiv vs Bukovyna Competition: Ukraine Persha Liga Date: Friday, 17th April 2026 Pick: 2 (Bukovyna to win) Odds: 1.34 Confidence: 68% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Ledger Ref: 25B3F5D02
Head to Head
Record
0
Metalist Kharkiv
1
Draws
6
Bukovyna
7
Meetings
2.1
Avg Goals
43%
BTTS
43%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Bukovyna won 6 of 7 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Metalist Kharkiv
Metric
Bukovyna
0.9
Goals For / Game
2.3
1.3
Goals Against / Game
0.6
20%
Clean Sheets
40%
4-2-4
W — D — L
10-0-0
Win Rate
40%
100%
2.6
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
M0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 14.1%
0-2 12.7%
0-3 7.6%
0-4 3.4%
0-5 1.2%
M1
1-0 5.9%
1-1 10.5%
1-2 9.5%
1-3 5.7%
1-4 2.6%
1-5 0.9%
M2
2-0 2.2%
2-1 4.0%
2-2 3.6%
2-3 2.1%
2-4 1.0%
2-5 0.4%
M3
3-0 0.6%
3-1 1.0%
3-2 0.9%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.2%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(14.1%) 0-2(12.7%) 1-2(9.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing M=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Metalist Kharkiv Win
30%
3.33
Draw
20%
5
Bukovyna Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Metalist Kharkiv
Overall
4.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
5.7
Bukovyna
Overall
10.0
Scoring
7.7
Defence
8.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 12%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 36%
Away Win & BTTS No 30%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 18%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 43%
Away Win & Under 2.5 23%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.10.25Persha Liga
Bukovyna2
Metalist Kharkiv0
09.11.24Persha Liga
Bukovyna2
Metalist Kharkiv1
15.09.24Persha Liga
Metalist Kharkiv0
Bukovyna1
03.07.24Club Friendly
Metalist Kharkiv0
Bukovyna0
01.03.24Club Friendly
Bukovyna2
Metalist Kharkiv1
04.11.23Persha Liga
Metalist Kharkiv2
Bukovyna3
02.09.23Persha Liga
Bukovyna1
Metalist Kharkiv0
Recent Form
Metalist Kharkiv
13.04.26Persha Liga
Livyi Bereg3
Metalist Kharkiv0
L
07.04.26Persha Liga
Metalist Kharkiv2
FC Chernihiv1
W
03.04.26Persha Liga
Prykarpattya0
Metalist Kharkiv0
D
28.03.26Persha Liga
Metalist Kharkiv2
Viktoria1
W
22.03.26Persha Liga
Probiy Horodenka1
Metalist Kharkiv2
W
30.11.25Persha Liga
Metalist Kharkiv0
Ahrobiznes Volochysk1
L
22.11.25Persha Liga
Inhulets3
Metalist Kharkiv0
L
15.11.25Persha Liga
Metalist Kharkiv1
SK Metalurh0
W
08.11.25Persha Liga
Metalist Kharkiv1
Ch. Odesa1
D
01.11.25Persha Liga
UCSA2
Metalist Kharkiv1
L
Bukovyna
12.04.26Persha Liga
Bukovyna2
Fenix Mariupol1
W
08.04.26Persha Liga
Bukovyna2
Livyi Bereg1
W
03.04.26Persha Liga
FC Chernihiv0
Bukovyna1
W
29.03.26Persha Liga
Bukovyna3
Prykarpattya1
W
20.03.26Persha Liga
Viktoria1
Bukovyna3
W
10.03.26Club Friendly
Bukovyna4
Probiy Horodenka1
W
04.03.26Ukrainian Cup
LNZ Cherkasy0
Bukovyna1
W
13.02.26Club Friendly
Bukovyna1
SC Poltava0
W
29.11.25Persha Liga
Bukovyna3
Probiy Horodenka1
W
23.11.25Persha Liga
Ahrobiznes Volochysk0
Bukovyna3
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 17th April 2026, Metalist Kharkiv host Bukovyna in Ukraine Persha Liga. Our analysis desk recommends Bukovyna to win as the standout selection.

Metalist Kharkiv arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Bukovyna are travelling well, with a record of 10W 0D 0L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Metalist Kharkiv, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Bukovyna's 6, with 1 draws from 7 encounters. Both teams have scored in 43% of those meetings.

Our verdict: bukovyna to win at odds of 1.34 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Ukraine Persha Liga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.34. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 18 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Metalist Kharkiv vs Bukovyna?
Our selection is 2 — Bukovyna to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Metalist Kharkiv's current form?
Metalist Kharkiv have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Bukovyna been performing recently?
Bukovyna have recorded 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Metalist Kharkiv lead with 0 wins versus Bukovyna's 6, with 1 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 43%.
⚠️
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