WON Case WON Club Africain 2-0 AS Gabes
Fixture Case File · Ref V
C

Club Africain

Home Side
W L W W W
7W 2D 1L → Holding Steady
VS
2-0
A
AS Gabes
Away Side
L L L W D
2W 2D 6L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
63%
Sunday, 5th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Club Africain to win
Club Africain 60%
Draw 20%
AS Gabes 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob84%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-21%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBC<<<<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<AS<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<44327DAD64DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 5 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Club Africain to win
1.19
Under 2.5 Goals85% BTTS — No95% Club Africain Clean Sheet80%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Club Africain vs AS Gabes Competition: Tunisian League Date: Sunday, 5th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Club Africain to win) Odds: 1.19 Confidence: 63% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — No (95%) Also: Club Africain Clean Sheet (80%) Ledger Ref: 44327DAD6
Head to Head
Record
6
Club Africain
4
Draws
0
AS Gabes
10
Meetings
1.7
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Club Africain won 6 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Club Africain
Metric
AS Gabes
1.7
Goals For / Game
0
0.2
Goals Against / Game
0
80%
Clean Sheets
0%
7-2-1
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
70%
20%
1
Avg Goals
25%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
5%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
C0
0-0 35.0%
0-1 7.0%
0-2 0.7%
0-3 0.1%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
C1
1-0 29.7%
1-1 6.0%
1-2 0.6%
1-3 0.0%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
C2
2-0 12.6%
2-1 2.5%
2-2 0.3%
2-3 0.0%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
C3
3-0 3.6%
3-1 0.7%
3-2 0.1%
3-3 0.0%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
C4
4-0 0.8%
4-1 0.2%
4-2 0.0%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
C5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(29.7%) 2-0(12.6%) 3-0(3.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing C=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Club Africain Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
AS Gabes Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Club Africain
Overall
7.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
9.3
AS Gabes
Overall
2.6
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 3%
Home Win & BTTS No 61%
Draw & BTTS Yes 1%
Draw & BTTS No 17%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 1%
Away Win & BTTS No 17%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 10%
Home Win & Under 2.5 54%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 3%
Away Win & Under 2.5 15%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
03.10.25
Ligue 1: AS Gabès0
Club Africain1
14.05.25
Ligue 1: AS Gabès0
Club Africain0
11.01.25
Ligue 1: Club Africain1
AS Gabès0
28.04.19
Ligue 1: AS Gabès2
Club Africain0
23.11.18
Ligue 1: Club Africain2
AS Gabès1
28.12.17
Ligue 1: AS Gabès1
Club Africain0
16.08.17
Ligue 1: Club Africain2
AS Gabès1
04.12.16
Ligue 1: AS Gabès1
Club Africain1
18.09.16
Ligue 1: Club Africain2
AS Gabès1
09.05.15
Ligue 1: AS Gabès0
Club Africain1
Recent Form
Club Africain
29.03.26
Friendly: Khdhra Sport0
Club Africain2
W
22.03.26
Tunisian Cup: US Monastir1
Club Africain0
L
08.03.26
LP1: US Ben Guerdane0
Club Africain1
W
01.03.26
LP1: Club Africain5
ES Métlaoui0
W
15.02.26
LP1: Club Africain3
JS El Omrane0
W
08.02.26
LP1: CS Sfaxien1
Club Africain1
D
31.01.26
LP1: Club Africain1
CA Bizertin0
W
27.01.26
LP1: ES Zarzis0
Club Africain0
D
22.01.26
LP1: Club Africain3
Étoile du Sahel0
W
17.01.26
LP1: AS Marsa0
Club Africain1
W
AS Gabes
22.03.26
Tunisian Cup: ES Métlaoui2
(5-2 Pen) AS Gabès2
L
06.03.26
LP1: AS Gabès0
JS El Omrane2
L
01.03.26
LP1: CS Sfaxien1
AS Gabès0
L
13.02.26
LP1: AS Gabès0
CA Bizertin0
D
07.02.26
LP1: ES Zarzis0
AS Gabès1
W
01.02.26
LP1: AS Gabès0
Étoile du Sahel0
D
28.01.26
LP1: AS Marsa1
AS Gabès0
L
21.01.26
LP1: AS Gabès1
Olympique Béja0
W
15.01.26
LP1: Espérance de Tunis2
AS Gabès1
L
23.11.25
LP1: Stade Tunisien4
AS Gabès0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 5th April 2026, Club Africain host AS Gabes in Tunisian League. Our analysis desk recommends Club Africain to win as the standout selection.

Club Africain arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

AS Gabes are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Club Africain, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to AS Gabes's 0, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: club africain to win at odds of 1.19 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Tunisian League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.19. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 5 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Club Africain vs AS Gabes?
Our selection is 1 — Club Africain to win, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Club Africain's current form?
Club Africain have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has AS Gabes been performing recently?
AS Gabes have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Club Africain lead with 6 wins versus AS Gabes's 0, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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