WON Case WON Saprissa 3-0 Zeledon
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Saprissa

Home Side
W D W L W
7W 1D 2L ▲ Trending Up
VS
3-0
Z
Zeledon
Away Side
W L L D L
1W 4D 5L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
59%
Sunday, 5th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Saprissa to win
Saprissa 50%
Draw 30%
Zeledon 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob81.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-22.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<Z<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A610E3D6D4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 5 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Saprissa to win
1.23
Under 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Saprissa vs Zeledon Competition: Costa Rica Primera Division Date: Sunday, 5th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Saprissa to win) Odds: 1.23 Confidence: 59% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Ledger Ref: A610E3D6D
Head to Head
Record
6
Saprissa
4
Draws
0
Zeledon
10
Meetings
2.6
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Saprissa won 6 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Saprissa
Metric
Zeledon
2.2
Goals For / Game
0
1.1
Goals Against / Game
0
20%
Clean Sheets
0%
7-1-2
W — D — L
1-4-5
Win Rate
70%
10%
1.7
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
Z0
Z1
Z2
Z3
Z4
Z5
S0
0-0 19.2%
0-1 10.6%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 21.1%
1-1 11.6%
1-2 3.2%
1-3 0.6%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
S2
2-0 11.6%
2-1 6.4%
2-2 1.8%
2-3 0.3%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
S3
3-0 4.3%
3-1 2.3%
3-2 0.6%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(21.1%) 2-0(11.6%) 2-1(6.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   Z=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Saprissa Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Zeledon Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Saprissa
Overall
7.3
Scoring
7.3
Defence
6.3
Zeledon
Overall
2.2
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Home Win & BTTS No 40%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 14%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 44%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 16%
Away Win & Over 2.5 3%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
29.01.26
Apertura: Pérez Zeledón3
Deportivo Saprissa3
23.09.25
Apertura: Deportivo Saprissa3
Pérez Zeledón0
27.07.25
Apertura: Pérez Zeledón0
Deportivo Saprissa1
08.05.25
Clausura: Pérez Zeledón0
Deportivo Saprissa3
17.01.25
Clausura: Deportivo Saprissa0
Pérez Zeledón0
08.11.24
Apertura: Pérez Zeledón1
Deportivo Saprissa2
12.09.24
Apertura: Deportivo Saprissa2
Pérez Zeledón2
04.04.24
Clausura: Deportivo Saprissa1
Pérez Zeledón0
19.01.24
Clausura: Pérez Zeledón1
Deportivo Saprissa0
12.11.23
Apertura: Deportivo Saprissa4
Pérez Zeledón0
Recent Form
Saprissa
29.03.26
Cup: Deportivo Saprissa5
Municipal Liberia1
W
26.03.26
Cup: Municipal Liberia1
Deportivo Saprissa1
D
23.03.26
PD: AD San Carlos1
Deportivo Saprissa3
W
15.03.26
PD: CS Cartaginés2
Deportivo Saprissa1
L
09.03.26
PD: Deportivo Saprissa2
CS Herediano1
W
06.03.26
PD: Deportivo Saprissa1
Sporting FC2
L
01.03.26
PD: Guadalupe FC0
Deportivo Saprissa2
W
22.02.26
PD: Deportivo Saprissa2
LD Alajuelense1
W
15.02.26
PD: Municipal Liberia0
Deportivo Saprissa1
W
12.02.26
Cup: AD Carmelita2
Deportivo Saprissa4
W
Zeledon
22.03.26
PD: Municipal Pérez Zeledón3
CS Cartaginés1
W
14.03.26
PD: LD Alajuelense3
Municipal Pérez Zeledón0
L
10.03.26
PD: Sporting FC3
Municipal Pérez Zeledón2
L
04.03.26
PD: Municipal Pérez Zeledón1
Municipal Liberia1
D
01.03.26
PD: CS Herediano3
Municipal Pérez Zeledón0
L
22.02.26
PD: Municipal Pérez Zeledón1
Guadalupe FC1
D
14.02.26
PD: Puntarenas FC1
Municipal Pérez Zeledón0
L
08.02.26
PD: CS Cartaginés1
Municipal Pérez Zeledón0
L
29.01.26
PD: Municipal Pérez Zeledón3
Deportivo Saprissa3
D
27.01.26
PD: Municipal Pérez Zeledón0
Sporting FC0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 5th April 2026, Saprissa host Zeledon in Costa Rica Primera Division. Our analysis desk recommends Saprissa to win as the standout selection.

Saprissa arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Zeledon are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 4D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Saprissa, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Zeledon's 0, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: saprissa to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Costa Rica Primera Division game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.23. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 5 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Saprissa vs Zeledon?
Our selection is 1 — Saprissa to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 59%.
What is Saprissa's current form?
Saprissa have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Zeledon been performing recently?
Zeledon have recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Saprissa lead with 6 wins versus Zeledon's 0, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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