WON Case WON Urartu 4-2 Gandzasar
Fixture Case File · Ref V
U

Urartu

Home Side
L W W D W
4W 2D 4L → Holding Steady
VS
4-2
G
Gandzasar
Away Side
W W D D D
3W 5D 2L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
56%
Sunday, 5th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Urartu to win
Urartu 50%
Draw 30%
Gandzasar 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob67.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-11.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBU<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<8E0A7564F4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 5 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
5
Urartu
1
Draws
0
Gandzasar
6
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Urartu won 5 of the last 6 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Urartu
Metric
Gandzasar
2
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.7
Goals Against / Game
0.7
30%
Clean Sheets
50%
4-2-4
W — D — L
3-5-2
Win Rate
40%
30%
2.7
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
U0
0-0 7.1%
0-1 9.2%
0-2 6.0%
0-3 2.6%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
U1
1-0 9.5%
1-1 12.4%
1-2 8.1%
1-3 3.5%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
U2
2-0 6.4%
2-1 8.4%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
U3
3-0 2.9%
3-1 3.8%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
U4
4-0 1.0%
4-1 1.3%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
U5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(9.5%) 2-1(8.4%) 2-0(6.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing U=Home goals ↓   G=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Urartu Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Gandzasar Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Urartu
Overall
4.6
Scoring
6.7
Defence
4.3
Gandzasar
Overall
4.5
Scoring
3.0
Defence
7.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 18%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 19%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 17%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 15%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
06.03.26
Premier League: FC Gandzasar2
FC Urartu2
09.08.25
Premier League: FC Urartu1
FC Gandzasar0
15.03.25
Premier League: FC Urartu2
FC Gandzasar1
28.11.24
Premier League: FC Gandzasar0
FC Urartu4
31.08.24
Premier League: FC Urartu2
FC Gandzasar0
06.04.23
Armenian Cup: FC Urartu4
FC Gandzasar0
Recent Form
Urartu
01.04.26
Cup: FC Urartu2
FC Ararat Yerevan3
L
20.03.26
PL: BKMA Yerevan0
FC Urartu1
W
15.03.26
PL: FC Urartu4
BKMA Yerevan1
W
06.03.26
PL: Gandzasar FC2
FC Urartu2
D
03.03.26
Cup: FC Ararat Yerevan0
FC Urartu3
W
12.02.26
Friendly: Yelimay Semey3
FC Urartu1
L
08.02.26
Friendly: Lokomotiv Moscow3
FC Urartu2
L
30.01.26
Friendly: Uzbekistan4
FC Urartu2
L
29.11.25
PL: FC Alashkert0
FC Urartu2
W
21.11.25
PL: FC Urartu1
FC Pyunik1
D
Gandzasar
21.03.26
PL: Gandzasar FC2
Ararat Yerevan1
W
14.03.26
PL: Ararat Yerevan0
Gandzasar FC2
W
06.03.26
PL: Gandzasar FC2
FC Urartu2
D
25.02.26
Friendly: Sardarapat0
Gandzasar FC0
D
14.02.26
Friendly: FC Van0
Gandzasar FC0
D
07.02.26
Friendly: Gandzasar FC1
Ararat Yerevan1
D
28.11.25
PL: Gandzasar FC0
BKMA Yerevan0
D
22.11.25
PL: Shirak Gyumri1
Gandzasar FC0
L
09.11.25
PL: FC Van2
Gandzasar FC1
L
03.11.25
PL: Gandzasar FC1
Alashkert0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 5th April 2026, Urartu host Gandzasar in Armenia Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Urartu to win as the standout selection.

Urartu arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Gandzasar are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 5D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Urartu, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Gandzasar's 0, with 1 draws from 6 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.

Our verdict: urartu to win at odds of 1.48 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Armenia Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.48. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 5 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Urartu vs Gandzasar?
Our selection is 1 — Urartu to win, priced at approximately 1.48. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Urartu's current form?
Urartu have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Gandzasar been performing recently?
Gandzasar have recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Urartu lead with 5 wins versus Gandzasar's 0, with 1 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
⚠️
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