WON Case WON Noah 2-0 BKMA
Fixture Case File · Ref V
N

Noah

Home Side
D W W W W
6W 3D 1L ▼ Trending Down
VS
2-0
B
BKMA
Away Side
L L L W D
2W 2D 6L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
58%
Sunday, 5th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Noah to win
Noah 50%
Draw 30%
BKMA 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob82.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-24.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBN<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<BKMA<<<<<<<<<<<<<B4265DEDB4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 5 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
7
Noah
0
Draws
3
BKMA
10
Meetings
2.9
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Noah won 7 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Noah
Metric
BKMA
1.9
Goals For / Game
1
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1.8
50%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-3-1
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
60%
20%
3
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
N0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 5.7%
0-2 3.3%
0-3 1.3%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
N1
1-0 9.2%
1-1 10.6%
1-2 6.1%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
N2
2-0 8.5%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
N3
3-0 5.3%
3-1 6.0%
3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
N4
4-0 2.4%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
N5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.8%) 1-0(9.2%) 2-0(8.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing N=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Noah Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
BKMA Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Noah
Overall
6.9
Scoring
6.3
Defence
5.7
BKMA
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
4.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 31%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 31%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
08.03.26
Premier League: BKMA Yerevan0
FC Noah2
06.12.25
Premier League: FC Noah2
BKMA Yerevan3
13.04.25
Premier League: BKMA Yerevan1
FC Noah5
09.04.25
Premier League: FC Noah3
BKMA Yerevan0
25.08.24
Premier League: BKMA Yerevan1
FC Noah2
19.04.24
Premier League: FC Noah1
BKMA Yerevan0
08.12.23
Premier League: BKMA Yerevan0
FC Noah2
05.10.23
Premier League: FC Noah3
BKMA Yerevan0
04.08.23
Premier League: BKMA Yerevan1
FC Noah0
01.05.23
Premier League: FC Noah1
BKMA Yerevan2
Recent Form
Noah
01.04.26
Armenian Cup: FC Noah2
FC Pyunik2
D
22.03.26
Premier League: FC Noah3
Shirak Gyumri0
W
16.03.26
Premier League: Shirak Gyumri0
FC Noah2
W
12.03.26
Armenian Super Cup: FC Noah2
(AET) Ararat-Armenia1
W
08.03.26
Premier League: BKMA Yerevan0
FC Noah2
W
05.03.26
Armenian Cup: FC Pyunik1
FC Noah2
W
26.02.26
UECL: AZ Alkmaar4
FC Noah0
L
19.02.26
UECL: FC Noah1
AZ Alkmaar0
W
07.02.26
Friendly: FC Noah0
FC Astana0
D
07.02.26
Friendly: FC Noah5
Yunnan Yukun5
D
BKMA
20.03.26
PL: BKMA Yerevan0
FC Urartu1
L
15.03.26
PL: FC Urartu4
BKMA Yerevan1
L
08.03.26
PL: BKMA Yerevan0
FC Noah2
L
07.02.26
Friendly: BKMA Yerevan1
FC Van0
W
31.01.26
Friendly: BKMA Yerevan2
FC Van2
D
06.12.25
PL: FC Noah2
BKMA Yerevan3
W
28.11.25
PL: Gandzasar FC0
BKMA Yerevan0
D
23.11.25
PL: FC Van3
BKMA Yerevan2
L
08.11.25
PL: FC Alashkert2
BKMA Yerevan0
L
02.11.25
PL: BKMA Yerevan1
FC Pyunik2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 5th April 2026, Noah host BKMA in Armenia Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Noah to win as the standout selection.

Noah arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

BKMA are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Noah, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to BKMA's 3, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: noah to win at odds of 1.21 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Armenia Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.21. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 5 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Noah vs BKMA?
Our selection is 1 — Noah to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Noah's current form?
Noah have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has BKMA been performing recently?
BKMA have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Noah lead with 7 wins versus BKMA's 3, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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