WON Case WON Sama Al Sarhan 1-3 Al Jazeera Amman
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Sama Al Sarhan

Home Side
L L D L D
1W 2D 7L ▲ Trending Up
VS
1-3
A
Al Jazeera Amman
Away Side
L W D D W
4W 3D 3L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
86%
Thursday, 2nd April 2026 Case Verdict
Over 1.5
Filing on over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob81.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge+4.7%Value detected
Kelly %25.1%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<A<<S<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<J<<<<<<<A<<<<<6D610EC184DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 2 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
1
Sama Al Sarhan
0
Draws
2
Al Jazeera Amman
3
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Over 1.5 in 67% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Sama Al Sarhan
Metric
Al Jazeera Amman
0.8
Goals For / Game
1.4
2.2
Goals Against / Game
1.6
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
1-2-7
W — D — L
4-3-3
Win Rate
10%
40%
3
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
S0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 9.0%
0-2 8.1%
0-3 4.8%
0-4 2.2%
0-5 0.8%
S1
1-0 6.0%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 9.7%
1-3 5.8%
1-4 2.6%
1-5 0.9%
S2
2-0 3.6%
2-1 6.5%
2-2 5.8%
2-3 3.5%
2-4 1.6%
2-5 0.6%
S3
3-0 1.4%
3-1 2.6%
3-2 2.3%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
S4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.8%
4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
S5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.8%) 1-2(9.7%) 0-1(9.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Sama Al Sarhan
Overall
1.6
Scoring
2.7
Defence
2.7
Al Jazeera Amman
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.7
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 20%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Away Win & BTTS No 32%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 8%
Home Win & Under 2.5 5%
Draw & Over 2.5 20%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 32%
Away Win & Under 2.5 22%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
03.02.26
PL: Sama Al Sarhan0
Al Jazeera Amman1
05.12.25
SC: Sama Al Sarhan3
Al Jazeera Amman1
18.08.25
PL: Al Jazeera Amman2
Sama Al Sarhan1
Recent Form
Sama Al Sarhan
18.03.26
PL: Sama Al Sarhan0
Al Wehdat6
L
14.03.26
PL: Al Buqaa4
Sama Al Sarhan2
L
06.03.26
PL: Sama Al Sarhan0
Al-Faisaly Amman0
D
25.02.26
PL: Al-Faisaly Amman4
Sama Al Sarhan0
L
20.02.26
PL: Sama Al Sarhan0
Shabab Al Ordon0
D
13.02.26
PL: Sama Al Sarhan1
Al Ramtha3
L
08.02.26
PL: Al Salt2
Sama Al Sarhan1
L
03.02.26
PL: Sama Al Sarhan0
Al Jazeera Amman1
L
30.01.26
PL: Al Ahli0
Sama Al Sarhan4
W
25.01.26
PL: Al Wehdat2
Sama Al Sarhan0
L
Al Jazeera Amman
18.03.26
PL: Al Jazeera Amman0
Al Hussein6
L
13.03.26
PL: Al Ramtha1
Al Jazeera Amman2
W
06.03.26
PL: Al Jazeera Amman2
Al Ahli2
D
02.03.26
PL: Shabab Al Ordon1
Al Jazeera Amman1
D
25.02.26
PL: Al Jazeera Amman1
Al Ramtha0
W
19.02.26
PL: Al Salt0
Al Jazeera Amman4
W
13.02.26
PL: Al Wehdat2
Al Jazeera Amman0
L
07.02.26
PL: Al Jazeera Amman1
Al Ahli2
L
03.02.26
PL: Sama Al Sarhan0
Al Jazeera Amman1
W
30.01.26
PL: Al Jazeera Amman2
Al Buqaa2
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 2nd April 2026, Sama Al Sarhan host Al Jazeera Amman in Jordan Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Sama Al Sarhan arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Al Jazeera Amman are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 3D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Sama Al Sarhan, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Al Jazeera Amman's 2, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Jordan Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is Over 1.5, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.23. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 2 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sama Al Sarhan vs Al Jazeera Amman?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 86%.
What is Sama Al Sarhan's current form?
Sama Al Sarhan have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Jazeera Amman been performing recently?
Al Jazeera Amman have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sama Al Sarhan lead with 1 wins versus Al Jazeera Amman's 2, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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