WON Case WON Al Nahda 3-2 Sur Club
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Al Nahda

Home Side
D D L W L
3W 3D 4L → Holding Steady
VS
3-2
S
Sur Club
Away Side
D D D W L
2W 5D 3L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
47%
Tuesday, 31st March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Al Nahda to win
Al Nahda 50%
Draw 20%
Sur Club 30%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds3.33
Implied Prob76.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-29.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<N<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<S<<<C<<<<<<<<<<<<71A2263FF4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 31 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Al Nahda to win
1.31
Under 2.5 Goals75%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Al Nahda vs Sur Club Competition: Oman FA Cup Date: Tuesday, 31st March 2026 Pick: 1 (Al Nahda to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 47% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (75%) Ledger Ref: 71A2263FF
Head to Head
Record
6
Al Nahda
4
Draws
0
Sur Club
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Al Nahda won 6 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Nahda
Metric
Sur Club
1
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1
30%
Clean Sheets
40%
3-3-4
W — D — L
2-5-3
Win Rate
30%
20%
2
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
A0
0-0 13.5%
0-1 13.5%
0-2 6.8%
0-3 2.3%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 13.5%
1-1 13.5%
1-2 6.8%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 6.8%
2-1 6.8%
2-2 3.4%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 2.3%
3-1 2.3%
3-2 1.1%
3-3 0.4%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(13.5%) 2-0(6.8%) 2-1(6.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Nahda Win
50%
2
Draw
20%
5
Sur Club Win
30%
3.33
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Nahda
Overall
3.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
6.3
Sur Club
Overall
3.5
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 22%
Draw & BTTS No 22%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 8%
Home Win & Under 2.5 25%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 33%
Away Win & Over 2.5 6%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.03.26
DIV: Sur Club1
Al Nahda1
11.01.26
Cup: Al Nahda4
Sur Club2
03.01.26
Cup: Sur Club0
Al Nahda2
29.10.25
DIV: Al Nahda4
Sur Club2
07.03.25
DIV: Al Nahda1
Sur Club1
15.09.24
DIV: Sur Club0
Al Nahda1
04.04.24
DIV: Al Nahda1
Sur Club1
19.10.23
Cup: Al Nahda1
Sur Club0
07.10.23
DIV: Sur Club2
Al Nahda3
23.05.23
DIV: Sur Club0
Al Nahda0
Recent Form
Al Nahda
17.03.26
DIV: Sur Club1
Al Nahda1
D
12.03.26
DIV: Al Nahda1
Al Khaboora1
D
07.03.26
DIV: Saham1
Al Nahda0
L
03.03.26
DIV: Oman Club0
Al Nahda1
W
25.02.26
DIV: Al-Shabab3
Al Nahda1
L
21.02.26
DIV: Al Nahda2
Ibri0
W
17.02.26
GCC: Al Rayyan3
Al Nahda1
L
14.02.26
SC: Oman Club0
Al Nahda2
W
10.02.26
GCC: Al Nahda1
Al Shabab1
D
02.02.26
DIV: Al Nahda0
Bahla1
L
Sur Club
17.03.26
DIV: Sur Club1
Al Nahda1
D
11.03.26
DIV: Sur Club0
Saham0
D
06.03.26
DIV: Al-Samail0
Sur Club0
D
22.02.26
DIV: Sur Club2
Bahla1
W
15.02.26
DIV: Al Nasr1
Sur Club0
L
08.02.26
DIV: Sohar1
Sur Club1
D
03.02.26
DIV: Sur Club0
Oman Club0
D
24.01.26
DIV: Al Khaboora0
Sur Club2
W
16.01.26
DIV: Sur Club1
Ibri2
L
11.01.26
Cup: Al Nahda4
Sur Club2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 31st March 2026, Al Nahda host Sur Club in Oman FA Cup. Our analysis desk recommends Al Nahda to win as the standout selection.

Al Nahda arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Sur Club are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 5D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Nahda, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Sur Club's 0, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al nahda to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Oman FA Cup game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.31. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 31 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Nahda vs Sur Club?
Our selection is 1 — Al Nahda to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 47%.
What is Al Nahda's current form?
Al Nahda have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Sur Club been performing recently?
Sur Club have recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Nahda lead with 6 wins versus Sur Club's 0, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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