LOST Case LOST Austria 1-0 South Korea
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Austria

Home Side
W D W L W
7W 1D 2L ▼ Trending Down
VS
1-0
S
South Korea
Away Side
L W W W L
6W 1D 3L ▲ Trending Up
CASE VERIFIED
92%
Tuesday, 31st March 2026 Case Verdict
Over 1.5
Filing on over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob84.7%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge+7.3%Value detected
Kelly %47.6%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<S<<<<<K<<<<<<<<<<AEE1A9FBD4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 31 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.18
Over 1.5 Goals80% BTTS — No75% South Korea Clean Sheet60%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Austria vs South Korea Competition: International Friendly Date: Tuesday, 31st March 2026 Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals) Odds: 1.18 Confidence: 92% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: BTTS — No (75%) Also: South Korea Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: AEE1A9FBD
Head to Head
Record
Neutral No head-to-head data found.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Austria
Metric
South Korea
2.7
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.2
40%
Clean Sheets
60%
7-1-2
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate
70%
60%
3
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
25%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
A0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 5.2%
0-2 2.7%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 9.7%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 5.4%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 9.5%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 6.2%
3-1 6.5%
3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 3.0%
4-1 3.2%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 1.2%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.2%) 2-1(9.9%) 1-0(9.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Austria
Overall
7.3
Scoring
9.0
Defence
7.7
South Korea
Overall
6.3
Scoring
4.7
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Home Win & BTTS No 38%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 32%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 28%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 19%
Away Win & Under 2.5 24%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Austria
27.03.26
FI: Austria5
Ghana1
W
18.11.25
WCQ: Austria1
Bosnia & Herzegovina1
D
15.11.25
WCQ: Cyprus0
Austria2
W
12.10.25
WCQ: Romania1
Austria0
L
09.10.25
WCQ: Austria10
San Marino0
W
09.09.25
WCQ: Bosnia & Herzegovina1
Austria2
W
06.09.25
WCQ: Austria1
Cyprus0
W
10.06.25
WCQ: San Marino0
Austria4
W
07.06.25
WCQ: Austria2
Romania1
W
23.03.25
UNL: Serbia2
Austria0
L
South Korea
28.03.26
FI: South Korea0
Ivory Coast4
L
18.11.25
FI: South Korea1
Ghana0
W
14.11.25
FI: South Korea2
Bolivia0
W
14.10.25
FI: South Korea2
Paraguay0
W
10.10.25
FI: South Korea0
Brazil5
L
10.09.25
FI: Mexico2
South Korea2
D
06.09.25
FI: USA0
South Korea2
W
15.07.25
EAC: South Korea0
Japan1
L
11.07.25
EAC: Hong Kong0
South Korea2
W
07.07.25
EAC: South Korea3
China0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 31st March 2026, Austria host South Korea in International Friendly. Our analysis desk recommends over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Austria arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

South Korea are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 1D 3L across 10 matches.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.18 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This International Friendly game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is Over 1.5, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.18. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 31 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Austria vs South Korea?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.18. Tip confidence rating: 92%.
What is Austria's current form?
Austria have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has South Korea been performing recently?
South Korea have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game.
⚠️
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