WON Case WON Finland U21 3-0 Cyprus U21
Fixture Case File · Ref V
F

Finland U21

Home Side
W D W L W
5W 3D 2L ▼ Trending Down
VS
3-0
C
Cyprus U21
Away Side
L W L L L
3W 2D 5L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
64%
Tuesday, 31st March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Finland U21 to win
Finland U21 60%
Draw 20%
Cyprus U21 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob92.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-28.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBF<<<<<<<U21<<<<<<<<<<<C<<<<<<U21<<<<<<<528F060814DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 31 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Finland U21 to win
1.08
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85% BTTS — No70% Finland U21 Clean Sheet60%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Finland U21 vs Cyprus U21 Competition: Euro U21 Qualification Date: Tuesday, 31st March 2026 Pick: 1 (Finland U21 to win) Odds: 1.08 Confidence: 64% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — No (70%) Also: Finland U21 Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: 528F06081
Head to Head
Record
1
Finland U21
0
Draws
0
Cyprus U21
1
Meetings
5
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Finland U21 won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Finland U21
Metric
Cyprus U21
2.8
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.8
Goals Against / Game
2.5
60%
Clean Sheets
20%
5-3-2
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
50%
30%
3.8
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
F0
0-0 2.4%
0-1 2.6%
0-2 1.4%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
F1
1-0 6.2%
1-1 6.9%
1-2 3.8%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
F2
2-0 8.3%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
F3
3-0 7.3%
3-1 8.0%
3-2 4.4%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
F4
4-0 4.8%
4-1 5.3%
4-2 2.9%
4-3 1.1%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
F5
5-0 2.6%
5-1 2.8%
5-2 1.6%
5-3 0.6%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.1%) 2-0(8.3%) 3-1(8.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing F=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Finland U21 Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Cyprus U21 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Finland U21
Overall
5.9
Scoring
9.3
Defence
7.3
Cyprus U21
Overall
3.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
1.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 34%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 17%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 31%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 16%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 18%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.09.25
EUR: Cyprus U210
Finland U215
Recent Form
Finland U21
26.03.26
EUR: San Marino U210
Finland U218
W
18.11.25
EUR: Finland U210
Kosovo U210
D
14.11.25
EUR: Finland U212
Romania U210
W
14.10.25
EUR: Spain U212
Finland U211
L
09.09.25
EUR: Cyprus U210
Finland U215
W
04.09.25
EUR: Finland U217
San Marino U210
W
18.06.25
EUR: Denmark U212
Finland U212
D
15.06.25
EUR: Finland U210
Ukraine U212
L
12.06.25
EUR: Finland U212
Netherlands U212
D
25.03.25
FI: Finland U211
Slovenia U210
W
Cyprus U21
27.03.26
EUR: Cyprus U210
Spain U217
L
18.11.25
EUR: San Marino U210
Cyprus U215
W
14.11.25
EUR: Cyprus U210
Kosovo U214
L
14.10.25
EUR: Romania U212
Cyprus U210
L
09.09.25
EUR: Cyprus U210
Finland U215
L
05.09.25
EUR: Spain U213
Cyprus U210
L
06.06.25
FI: Armenia U212
Cyprus U215
W
03.06.25
FI: Armenia U211
Cyprus U211
D
24.03.25
FI: Cyprus U213
Israel U211
W
20.03.25
FI: Cyprus U210
Bulgaria U210
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 31st March 2026, Finland U21 host Cyprus U21 in Euro U21 Qualification. Our analysis desk recommends Finland U21 to win as the standout selection.

Finland U21 arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Cyprus U21 are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Finland U21, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Cyprus U21's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: finland u21 to win at odds of 1.08 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Euro U21 Qualification game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.08. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 31 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Finland U21 vs Cyprus U21?
Our selection is 1 — Finland U21 to win, priced at approximately 1.08. Tip confidence rating: 64%.
What is Finland U21's current form?
Finland U21 have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Cyprus U21 been performing recently?
Cyprus U21 have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Finland U21 lead with 1 wins versus Cyprus U21's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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