WON Case WON Cork City 4-1 Athlone
Fixture Case File · Ref V
C

Cork City

Home Side
W W D W W
8W 2D 0L ▼ Trending Down
VS
4-1
A
Athlone
Away Side
L W L D W
3W 3D 4L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
62%
Friday, 27th March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Cork City to win
Cork City 50%
Draw 30%
Athlone 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob76.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-14.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBC<<<<C<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<768F3BAEB4DFB2607252M2607259<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 27 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
6
Cork City
1
Draws
3
Athlone
10
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Cork City won 6 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Cork City
Metric
Athlone
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.3
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.6
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
8-2-0
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
80%
30%
2.7
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
C0
0-0 6.7%
0-1 6.4%
0-2 3.0%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
C1
1-0 11.8%
1-1 11.2%
1-2 5.3%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
C2
2-0 10.3%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 4.6%
2-3 1.5%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
C3
3-0 6.0%
3-1 5.7%
3-2 2.7%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
C4
4-0 2.6%
4-1 2.5%
4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
C5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.8%) 2-0(10.3%) 2-1(9.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing C=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Cork City Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Athlone Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Cork City
Overall
8.6
Scoring
6.3
Defence
8.0
Athlone
Overall
3.9
Scoring
4.3
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 38%
Home Win & BTTS No 21%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 30%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
11.10.24
DIV: Athlone Town4
Cork City1
09.08.24
DIV: Cork City0
Athlone Town0
31.05.24
DIV: Athlone Town1
Cork City0
29.03.24
DIV: Cork City1
Athlone Town0
14.10.22
DIV: Athlone Town3
Cork City2
05.08.22
DIV: Cork City6
Athlone Town1
06.05.22
DIV: Athlone Town1
Cork City2
25.03.22
DIV: Cork City4
Athlone Town1
03.09.21
DIV: Cork City3
Athlone Town1
18.06.21
DIV: Athlone Town0
Cork City2
Recent Form
Cork City
20.03.26
DIV: UC Dublin0
Cork City1
W
13.03.26
DIV: Cork City2
Longford1
W
06.03.26
DIV: Cobh Ramblers1
Cork City1
D
27.02.26
DIV: Cork City1
Bray0
W
20.02.26
DIV: Wexford1
Cork City4
W
13.02.26
DIV: Cork City1
Treaty United0
W
04.02.26
CF: Cork City4
Kerry1
W
29.01.26
CF: Cork City3
Galway1
W
23.01.26
CF: St. Patricks1
Cork City1
D
14.01.26
CF: Cork City1
Waterford0
W
Athlone
20.03.26
DIV: Treaty United2
Athlone Town0
L
13.03.26
DIV: Athlone Town2
Cobh Ramblers0
W
06.03.26
DIV: Bray Wanderers2
Athlone Town1
L
27.02.26
DIV: Athlone Town2
Wexford2
D
20.02.26
DIV: Kerry FC0
Athlone Town1
W
13.02.26
DIV: Athlone Town2
Finn Harps1
W
16.01.26
CF: Bohemians4
Athlone Town1
L
17.10.25
DIV: Athlone Town1
Longford2
L
10.10.25
DIV: UC Dublin2
Athlone Town2
D
03.10.25
DIV: Athlone Town1
Dundalk1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 27th March 2026, Cork City host Athlone in Ireland Division 1. Our analysis desk recommends Cork City to win as the standout selection.

Cork City arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Athlone are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Cork City, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Athlone's 3, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: cork city to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Ireland Division 1 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.31. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 27 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Cork City vs Athlone?
Our selection is 1 — Cork City to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Cork City's current form?
Cork City have won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Athlone been performing recently?
Athlone have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Cork City lead with 6 wins versus Athlone's 3, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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