WON Case WON Abha 2-0 Al Jubail
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Abha

Home Side
D D W W W
8W 2D 0L → Holding Steady
VS
2-0
A
Al Jubail
Away Side
W L W L L
2W 3D 5L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
74%
Friday, 27th March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Abha to win
Abha 60%
Draw 20%
Al Jubail 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob90.1%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-16.1%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<J<<<<<<<<<<<<<9815E46164DFB2607252M2607259<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 27 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Abha to win
1.11
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes75%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Abha vs Al Jubail Competition: Saudi Division 1 Date: Friday, 27th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Abha to win) Odds: 1.11 Confidence: 74% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS — Yes (75%) Ledger Ref: 9815E4616
Head to Head
Record
3
Abha
0
Draws
0
Al Jubail
3
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Abha won 3 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Abha
Metric
Al Jubail
2
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.8
Goals Against / Game
2.1
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
8-2-0
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
80%
20%
3.2
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 4.7%
0-2 2.6%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 8.8%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 5.3%
1-3 2.0%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 6.2%
3-1 6.8%
3-2 3.7%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 3.2%
4-1 3.5%
4-2 1.9%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 1.3%
5-1 1.4%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.9%) 2-0(9.0%) 1-0(8.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Abha Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Al Jubail Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Abha
Overall
8.6
Scoring
6.7
Defence
7.3
Al Jubail
Overall
2.9
Scoring
4.7
Defence
3.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 48%
Home Win & BTTS No 16%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 4%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 42%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.11.25
DIV: Al Jubail0
Abha3
16.03.25
DIV: Abha4
Al Jubail0
05.11.24
DIV: Al Jubail0
Abha1
Recent Form
Abha
01.03.26
DIV: Al Jandal1
Abha1
D
24.02.26
DIV: Abha1
Al Anwar1
D
20.02.26
DIV: Al-Arabi1
Abha3
W
15.02.26
DIV: Abha2
Al-Wehda1
W
09.02.26
DIV: Abha2
Al-Zulfi0
W
03.02.26
DIV: Al-Orobah1
Abha2
W
27.01.26
DIV: Abha3
Al-Jabalain1
W
21.01.26
DIV: Al-Faisaly0
Abha2
W
17.01.26
DIV: Abha2
Al-Raed1
W
11.01.26
DIV: Al-Adalah1
Abha2
W
Al Jubail
01.03.26
DIV: Al Jubail2
Al Bukayriyah1
W
24.02.26
DIV: Al-Raed1
Al Jubail0
L
19.02.26
DIV: Al Jubail1
Al Batin0
W
14.02.26
DIV: Al Tai4
Al Jubail0
L
09.02.26
DIV: Al Jubail2
Al Orobah3
L
04.02.26
DIV: Al Anwar4
Al Jubail3
L
30.01.26
DIV: Al Batin3
Al Jubail1
L
26.01.26
DIV: Al Jubail2
Al Zulfi2
D
21.01.26
DIV: Jeddah1
Al Jubail1
D
16.01.26
DIV: Al Jubail2
Al Adalah2
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 27th March 2026, Abha host Al Jubail in Saudi Division 1. Our analysis desk recommends Abha to win as the standout selection.

Abha arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Al Jubail are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Abha, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Al Jubail's 0, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: abha to win at odds of 1.11 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Saudi Division 1 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.11. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 27 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Abha vs Al Jubail?
Our selection is 1 — Abha to win, priced at approximately 1.11. Tip confidence rating: 74%.
What is Abha's current form?
Abha have won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Jubail been performing recently?
Al Jubail have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Abha lead with 3 wins versus Al Jubail's 0, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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