LOST Case LOST Molynes 1-1 Montego Bay
Fixture Case File · Ref V
M

Molynes

Home Side
L L L D L
0W 3D 7L → Holding Steady
VS
1-1
M
Montego Bay
Away Side
L W W L D
5W 3D 2L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
58%
Wednesday, 25th March 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Montego Bay to win
Molynes 30%
Draw 20%
Montego Bay 50%
H Fair Odds3.33
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob72.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-14.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBM<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<B<<<<<<<<4B29328A74DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 26 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — Montego Bay to win
1.38
BTTS — No65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Molynes vs Montego Bay Competition: Jamaica Premier League Date: Wednesday, 25th March 2026 Pick: 2 (Montego Bay to win) Odds: 1.38 Confidence: 58% Also: BTTS — No (65%) Ledger Ref: 4B29328A7
Head to Head
Record
1
Molynes
1
Draws
8
Montego Bay
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Montego Bay won 8 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Molynes
Metric
Montego Bay
0.3
Goals For / Game
1.9
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1.1
20%
Clean Sheets
40%
0-3-7
W — D — L
5-3-2
Win Rate
0%
50%
2.5
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M0
0-0 8.6%
0-1 15.1%
0-2 13.2%
0-3 7.7%
0-4 3.4%
0-5 1.2%
M1
1-0 6.0%
1-1 10.6%
1-2 9.3%
1-3 5.4%
1-4 2.4%
1-5 0.8%
M2
2-0 2.1%
2-1 3.7%
2-2 3.2%
2-3 1.9%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.3%
M3
3-0 0.5%
3-1 0.9%
3-2 0.8%
3-3 0.4%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.2%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(15.1%) 0-2(13.2%) 1-2(9.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing M=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Molynes Win
30%
3.33
Draw
20%
5
Montego Bay Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Molynes
Overall
0.9
Scoring
1.0
Defence
4.7
Montego Bay
Overall
5.9
Scoring
6.3
Defence
6.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Home Win & BTTS No 0%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 25%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Away Win & BTTS No 40%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 0%
Home Win & Under 2.5 0%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 21%
Away Win & Over 2.5 28%
Away Win & Under 2.5 34%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
01.02.26
PL: Montego Bay United3
Molynes United0
12.10.25
PL: Molynes United0
Montego Bay United2
21.03.25
PL: Montego Bay United5
Molynes United0
20.01.25
PL: Molynes United0
Montego Bay United2
17.10.24
PL: Montego Bay United4
Molynes United0
24.03.24
PL: Montego Bay United2
Molynes United1
27.12.23
PL: Molynes United1
Montego Bay United2
26.02.23
PL: Montego Bay United2
Molynes United2
06.11.22
PL: Molynes United0
Montego Bay United1
18.04.22
PL: Molynes United2
Montego Bay United1
Recent Form
Molynes
22.03.26
PL: Dunbeholden1
Molynes United0
L
18.03.26
PL: Molynes United0
Waterhouse4
L
16.03.26
PL: Mount Pleasant2
Molynes United0
L
09.03.26
PL: Arnett Gardens0
Molynes United0
D
05.03.26
PL: Cavalier2
Molynes United1
L
02.03.26
PL: Molynes United2
Harbour View2
D
15.02.26
PL: Molynes United0
Racing United1
L
11.02.26
PL: Chapelton1
Molynes United0
L
08.02.26
PL: Molynes United0
Chapelton0
D
01.02.26
PL: Montego Bay3
Molynes United0
L
Montego Bay
22.03.26
PL: Chapelton3
Montego Bay United1
L
18.03.26
PL: Montego Bay United4
Dunbeholden3
W
16.03.26
PL: Waterhouse0
Montego Bay United4
W
10.03.26
PL: Waterhouse1
Montego Bay United0
L
01.03.26
PL: Montego Bay United1
Arnett Gardens1
D
22.02.26
PL: Harbour View2
Montego Bay United2
D
15.02.26
PL: Montego Bay United1
Cavalier0
W
08.02.26
PL: Racing United1
Montego Bay United1
D
01.02.26
PL: Montego Bay United3
Molynes United0
W
25.01.26
PL: Montego Bay United2
Chapelton0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 25th March 2026, Molynes host Montego Bay in Jamaica Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Montego Bay to win as the standout selection.

Molynes arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Montego Bay are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 3D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Molynes, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Montego Bay's 8, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: montego bay to win at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Jamaica Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.38. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 26 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Molynes vs Montego Bay?
Our selection is 2 — Montego Bay to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Molynes's current form?
Molynes have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Montego Bay been performing recently?
Montego Bay have recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Molynes lead with 1 wins versus Montego Bay's 8, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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