WON Case WON Schoningen 1-2 Emden
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Schoningen

Home Side
L W D W L
3W 3D 4L ▼ Trending Down
VS
1-2
E
Emden
Away Side
D W L W L
4W 4D 2L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
73%
Wednesday, 25th March 2026 Case Verdict
Over 2.5
Filing on over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob67.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge+5.4%Value detected
Kelly %16.8%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<E<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<4C21C01E24DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 26 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.48
Under 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Schoningen vs Emden Competition: Ger. Regionalliga North Date: Wednesday, 25th March 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.48 Confidence: 73% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Ledger Ref: 4C21C01E2
Head to Head
Record
0
Schoningen
2
Draws
1
Emden
3
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Over 2.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Schoningen
Metric
Emden
0
Goals For / Game
2.3
0
Goals Against / Game
1.6
0%
Clean Sheets
20%
3-3-4
W — D — L
4-4-2
Win Rate
30%
40%
2
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
E0
E1
E2
E3
E4
E5
S0
0-0 14.2%
0-1 16.4%
0-2 9.4%
0-3 3.6%
0-4 1.0%
0-5 0.2%
S1
1-0 11.4%
1-1 13.1%
1-2 7.5%
1-3 2.9%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
S2
2-0 4.6%
2-1 5.2%
2-2 3.0%
2-3 1.2%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
S3
3-0 1.2%
3-1 1.4%
3-2 0.8%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(16.4%) 0-0(14.2%) 1-1(13.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   E=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Schoningen
Overall
3.9
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Emden
Overall
5.2
Scoring
7.7
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 20%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 10%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 21%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 25%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
27.08.25
RL: Kickers Emden1
FSV Schöningen2
24.02.24
OBE: Kickers Emden5
FSV Schöningen0
02.09.23
OBE: FSV Schöningen3
Kickers Emden1
Recent Form
Schoningen
20.03.26
RL: FSV Schöningen0
VfB Lübeck4
L
15.03.26
RL: FC St. Pauli II0
FSV Schöningen5
W
08.03.26
RL: Bremer SV3
FSV Schöningen3
D
21.02.26
CF: MTV Wolfenbüttel3
FSV Schöningen4
W
14.02.26
CF: FSV Schöningen2
VfB Lübeck3
L
08.02.26
CF: VfV Hildesheim1
FSV Schöningen3
W
24.01.26
CF: Chemie Leipzig1
FSV Schöningen1
D
21.01.26
CF: Magdeburg II5
FSV Schöningen2
L
18.01.26
CF: Babelsberg2
FSV Schöningen2
D
29.11.25
RL: FSV Schöningen2
SSV Jeddeloh II6
L
Emden
20.03.26
RL: Blau-Weiß Lohne1
Kickers Emden1
D
14.03.26
RL: Kickers Emden4
Eintracht Norderstedt2
W
09.02.26
CF: SC Verl5
Kickers Emden2
L
07.02.26
CF: Bersenbrück0
Kickers Emden4
W
18.01.26
CF: Paderborn II2
Kickers Emden1
L
06.12.25
RL: Kickers Emden1
Hannoverscher SC1
D
28.11.25
RL: SC Weiche-080
Kickers Emden1
W
14.11.25
RL: Kickers Emden2
SV Drochtersen/Assel2
D
08.11.25
RL: SV Meppen2
Kickers Emden2
D
01.11.25
RL: Kickers Emden5
Altona 931
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 25th March 2026, Schoningen host Emden in Ger. Regionalliga North. Our analysis desk recommends over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Schoningen arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Emden are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 4D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Schoningen, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Emden's 1, with 2 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.48 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Ger. Regionalliga North game is a perfect chance to do exactly that.

Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass. We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter.

Then we turn our attention to the away side. We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important.

Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage. Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is Over 2.5, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.48.

Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over. The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 26 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Schoningen vs Emden?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.48. Tip confidence rating: 73%.
What is Schoningen's current form?
Schoningen have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Emden been performing recently?
Emden have recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Schoningen lead with 0 wins versus Emden's 1, with 2 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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