WON Case WON Aarhus W 1-2 Fortuna Hjorring W
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Aarhus W

Home Side
D L W D L
5W 2D 3L ▲ Trending Up
VS
1-2
F
Fortuna Hjorring W
Away Side
L L W L W
4W 2D 4L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
81%
Tuesday, 24th March 2026 Case Verdict
Over 1.5
Filing on over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob75.2%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge+5.8%Value detected
Kelly %23.4%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<<<F<<<<<<<H<<<<<<<<D88E4EAE54DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 25 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.33
Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Aarhus W vs Fortuna Hjorring W Competition: Den. A Liga Women Date: Tuesday, 24th March 2026 Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals) Odds: 1.33 Confidence: 81% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ledger Ref: D88E4EAE5
Head to Head
Record
3
Aarhus W
1
Draws
6
Fortuna Hjorring W
10
Meetings
2.9
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Over 1.5 in 60% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Aarhus W
Metric
Fortuna Hjorring W
2.3
Goals For / Game
1.7
1.8
Goals Against / Game
1.4
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
5-2-3
W — D — L
4-2-4
Win Rate
50%
40%
3.6
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
A0
0-0 2.7%
0-1 4.8%
0-2 4.2%
0-3 2.4%
0-4 1.1%
0-5 0.4%
A1
1-0 5.1%
1-1 8.9%
1-2 7.7%
1-3 4.5%
1-4 2.0%
1-5 0.7%
A2
2-0 4.7%
2-1 8.2%
2-2 7.2%
2-3 4.2%
2-4 1.8%
2-5 0.6%
A3
3-0 2.9%
3-1 5.1%
3-2 4.4%
3-3 2.6%
3-4 1.1%
3-5 0.4%
A4
4-0 1.3%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 2.0%
4-3 1.2%
4-4 0.5%
4-5 0.2%
A5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 1-1(8.9%) 2-1(8.2%) 1-2(7.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Aarhus W
Overall
5.6
Scoring
7.7
Defence
4.0
Fortuna Hjorring W
Overall
4.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Home Win & BTTS No 18%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 34%
Home Win & Under 2.5 11%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 28%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
08.11.25
AL: AGF Aarhus2
Fortuna Hjørring1
23.08.25
AL: Fortuna Hjørring4
AGF Aarhus0
24.05.25
AL: Fortuna Hjørring1
AGF Aarhus0
15.03.25
AL: AGF Aarhus2
Fortuna Hjørring2
26.01.25
CF: Fortuna Hjørring0
AGF Aarhus1
05.10.24
AL: Fortuna Hjørring3
AGF Aarhus0
24.08.24
AL: AGF Aarhus0
Fortuna Hjørring3
04.05.24
AL: AGF Aarhus3
Fortuna Hjørring5
30.03.24
AL: Fortuna Hjørring1
AGF Aarhus0
09.03.24
CUP: Fortuna Hjørring0
AGF Aarhus1
Recent Form
Aarhus W
17.03.26
AL: KoldingQ W0
AGF Aarhus W0
D
07.03.26
CF: FC Copenhagen W4
AGF Aarhus W3
L
28.02.26
CF: AGF Aarhus W4
Midtjylland W1
W
18.02.26
CF: KuPS W2
AGF Aarhus W2
D
05.02.26
CF: Hacken W6
AGF Aarhus W0
L
25.01.26
CF: Midtjylland W0
AGF Aarhus W3
W
06.12.25
CUP: Koge W2
AGF Aarhus W0
L
22.11.25
AL: AGF Aarhus W6
Odense Q W0
W
16.11.25
AL: Midtjylland W2
AGF Aarhus W3
W
08.11.25
AL: AGF Aarhus W2
Fortuna Hjorring W1
W
Fortuna Hjorring W
15.03.26
AL: Fortuna Hjørring W1
Brøndby W2
L
07.03.26
CF: Vålerenga W3
Fortuna Hjørring W1
L
22.11.25
AL: Fortuna Hjørring W2
Køge W1
W
19.11.25
EC: Fortuna Hjørring W2
Breidablik W3
L
15.11.25
AL: Odense Q W0
Fortuna Hjørring W5
W
12.11.25
EC: Breidablik W0
Fortuna Hjørring W1
W
08.11.25
AL: Aarhus W2
Fortuna Hjørring W1
L
04.11.25
AL: Fortuna Hjørring W1
Midtjylland W1
D
18.10.25
AL: Nordsjaelland W2
Fortuna Hjørring W2
D
15.10.25
EC: Fortuna Hjørring W1
Vorskla Poltava W0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 24th March 2026, Aarhus W host Fortuna Hjorring W in Den. A Liga Women. Our analysis desk recommends over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Aarhus W arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Fortuna Hjorring W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 2D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Aarhus W, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Fortuna Hjorring W's 6, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Den. A Liga Women game is a perfect chance to do exactly that.

Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass. We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter.

Then we turn our attention to the away side. We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important.

Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage. Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is Over 1.5, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.33.

Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over. The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 25 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Aarhus W vs Fortuna Hjorring W?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 81%.
What is Aarhus W's current form?
Aarhus W have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Fortuna Hjorring W been performing recently?
Fortuna Hjorring W have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Aarhus W lead with 3 wins versus Fortuna Hjorring W's 6, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
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