WON Case WON Al Jeel 1-0 Najran
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Al Jeel

Home Side
W W W W W
6W 1D 3L ▼ Trending Down
VS
1-0
N
Najran
Away Side
W L W D W
6W 2D 2L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
90%
Tuesday, 24th March 2026 Case Verdict
1X
Filing on Al Jeel to win or draw
Implied Prob83.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge+6.7%Value detected
Kelly %40%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<J<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<N<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<2BC9EFA8D4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 25 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
2
Al Jeel
4
Draws
4
Najran
10
Meetings
2.6
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Jeel
Metric
Najran
1.3
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.1
Goals Against / Game
0.8
20%
Clean Sheets
40%
6-1-3
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate
60%
60%
2.3
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
A0
0-0 10.0%
0-1 12.5%
0-2 7.8%
0-3 3.3%
0-4 1.0%
0-5 0.3%
A1
1-0 10.5%
1-1 13.2%
1-2 8.2%
1-3 3.4%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
A2
2-0 5.5%
2-1 6.9%
2-2 4.3%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 1.9%
3-1 2.4%
3-2 1.5%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(13.2%) 1-0(10.5%) 0-0(10.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   N=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Jeel
Overall
6.3
Scoring
4.3
Defence
6.3
Najran
Overall
6.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
7.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Away Win & BTTS No 25%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 18%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 18%
Away Win & Under 2.5 27%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
05.12.25
D2: Najran SC1
Al Jeel2
19.04.22
DIV: Al Jeel0
Najran SC3
08.12.21
DIV: Najran SC2
Al Jeel0
19.04.21
DIV: Najran SC0
Al Jeel0
02.01.21
DIV: Al Jeel1
Najran SC1
16.08.20
DIV: Al Jeel1
Najran SC2
12.11.19
DIV: Najran SC0
Al Jeel2
10.05.19
DIV: Najran SC3
Al Jeel2
25.12.18
DIV: Al Jeel2
Najran SC2
07.04.17
DIV: Najran SC1
Al Jeel1
Recent Form
Al Jeel
14.03.26
D2: Jerash2
Al Jeel3
W
27.02.26
D2: Al-Shoalah1
Al Jeel2
W
21.02.26
D2: Al Jeel2
Al Rawdah1
W
16.02.26
D2: Al Taraji1
Al Jeel2
W
11.02.26
D2: Al-Sadd2
Al Jeel3
W
06.02.26
D2: Al Jeel0
Al Ain0
D
31.01.26
D2: Tuwaiq0
Al Jeel1
W
25.01.26
D2: Al Jeel0
Al-Sahel2
L
20.01.26
D2: Al Jeel0
Al-Washm1
L
15.01.26
D2: Al Entesar1
Al Jeel0
L
Najran
14.03.26
D2: Najran SC2
Al-Sadd1
W
27.02.26
D2: Najran SC0
Al-Sharq1
L
21.02.26
D2: Najran SC1
Al-Shoalah0
W
16.02.26
D2: Tuwaiq2
Najran SC2
D
11.02.26
D2: Jerash0
Najran SC1
W
06.02.26
D2: Najran SC3
Al Rawdah1
W
31.01.26
D2: Al Taraji1
Najran SC1
D
25.01.26
D2: Najran SC2
Afief0
W
20.01.26
D2: Najran SC2
Al Ain0
W
15.01.26
D2: Al-Washm2
Najran SC0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 24th March 2026, Al Jeel host Najran in Saudi Division 2. Our analysis desk recommends Al Jeel to win or draw as the standout selection.

Al Jeel arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Najran are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Jeel, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Najran's 4, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al jeel to win or draw at odds of 1.20 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Saudi Division 2 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1X, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.20. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 25 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Jeel vs Najran?
Our selection is 1X — Al Jeel to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Al Jeel's current form?
Al Jeel have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Najran been performing recently?
Najran have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Jeel lead with 2 wins versus Najran's 4, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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