WON Case WON FC Emmen 2-4 Cambuur
Fixture Case File · Ref V
F

FC Emmen

Home Side
D L W W L
2W 3D 5L → Holding Steady
VS
2-4
C
Cambuur
Away Side
L W D W W
6W 2D 2L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
77%
Tuesday, 24th March 2026 Case Verdict
Over 2.5
Filing on over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob71.4%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge+5.6%Value detected
Kelly %19.5%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBFC<E<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<C<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<CF1A9C9E84DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 25 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
5
FC Emmen
3
Draws
2
Cambuur
10
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
FC Emmen
Metric
Cambuur
0.9
Goals For / Game
1.8
1.7
Goals Against / Game
1.4
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
2-3-5
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate
20%
60%
2.9
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
F0
0-0 5.5%
0-1 9.6%
0-2 8.4%
0-3 4.9%
0-4 2.2%
0-5 0.8%
F1
1-0 6.3%
1-1 11.1%
1-2 9.7%
1-3 5.7%
1-4 2.5%
1-5 0.9%
F2
2-0 3.6%
2-1 6.4%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 3.3%
2-4 1.4%
2-5 0.5%
F3
3-0 1.4%
3-1 2.4%
3-2 2.1%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
F4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.7%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
F5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(11.1%) 1-2(9.7%) 0-1(9.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing F=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
FC Emmen
Overall
2.9
Scoring
3.0
Defence
4.3
Cambuur
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Away Win & BTTS No 23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 10%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 31%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
03.10.25
EER: SC Cambuur3
FC Emmen2
04.04.25
EER: FC Emmen3
SC Cambuur0
04.02.25
CF: FC Emmen1
SC Cambuur2
29.09.24
EER: SC Cambuur1
FC Emmen3
13.07.24
CF: SC Cambuur2
FC Emmen2
23.02.24
EER: FC Emmen2
SC Cambuur0
11.08.23
EER: SC Cambuur2
FC Emmen2
26.04.23
CF: FC Emmen2
SC Cambuur1
01.04.23
ERE: SC Cambuur1
FC Emmen2
15.01.23
ERE: FC Emmen0
SC Cambuur0
Recent Form
FC Emmen
20.03.26
EER: FC Emmen2
Venlo2
D
13.03.26
EER: FC Emmen0
Den Haag1
L
09.03.26
EER: Jong AZ2
FC Emmen3
W
02.03.26
EER: FC Emmen1
Jong Utrecht0
W
27.02.26
EER: FC Emmen0
Willem II3
L
23.02.26
EER: FC Emmen0
Jong Ajax0
D
20.02.26
EER: FC Emmen2
Jong PSV3
L
13.02.26
EER: Dordrecht1
FC Emmen0
L
30.01.26
EER: Den Bosch1
FC Emmen1
D
17.01.26
EER: Oss4
FC Emmen0
L
Cambuur
20.03.26
EER: SC Cambuur3
Jong AZ4
L
16.03.26
EER: Helmond0
SC Cambuur1
W
13.03.26
EER: SC Cambuur1
Roda1
D
08.03.26
EER: SC Cambuur1
Jong Utrecht0
W
03.03.26
EER: SC Cambuur3
Almere City2
W
27.02.26
EER: Oss1
SC Cambuur2
W
24.02.26
EER: SC Cambuur2
Eindhoven FC1
W
20.02.26
EER: SC Cambuur1
Waalwijk1
D
16.02.26
EER: Jong Ajax1
SC Cambuur2
W
02.02.26
EER: Jong PSV3
SC Cambuur2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 24th March 2026, FC Emmen host Cambuur in Eerste Divisie. Our analysis desk recommends over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

FC Emmen arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Cambuur are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour FC Emmen, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Cambuur's 2, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Eerste Divisie game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is Over 2.5, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.40. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 25 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for FC Emmen vs Cambuur?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 77%.
What is FC Emmen's current form?
FC Emmen have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Cambuur been performing recently?
Cambuur have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
FC Emmen lead with 5 wins versus Cambuur's 2, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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