LOST Case LOST TNS 0-2 Colwyn Bay
Fixture Case File · Ref V
T

TNS

Home Side
W W D W W
8W 0D 2L ▼ Trending Down
VS
0-2
C
Colwyn Bay
Away Side
W L W L W
4W 1D 5L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
46%
Friday, 20th March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on TNS to win
TNS 50%
Draw 30%
Colwyn Bay 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob84%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-38%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBTNS<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<C<<<<<<B<<<<<<<<<E6B605A6C4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 20 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — TNS to win
1.19
Under 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — No70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
TNS vs Colwyn Bay Competition: Wales Cymru Premier Date: Friday, 20th March 2026 Pick: 1 (TNS to win) Odds: 1.19 Confidence: 46% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: BTTS — No (70%) Ledger Ref: E6B605A6C
Head to Head
Record
0
TNS
7
Draws
0
Colwyn Bay
7
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
43%
BTTS
29%
Over 2.5
Against Filing TNS won 0 of the last 7 meetings (7 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
TNS
Metric
Colwyn Bay
0
Goals For / Game
1.3
0
Goals Against / Game
1.7
0%
Clean Sheets
10%
8-0-2
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate
80%
40%
1.5
Avg Goals
40%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
T0
0-0 22.3%
0-1 14.5%
0-2 4.7%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
T1
1-0 19.0%
1-1 12.3%
1-2 4.0%
1-3 0.9%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
T2
2-0 8.1%
2-1 5.2%
2-2 1.7%
2-3 0.4%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
T3
3-0 2.3%
3-1 1.5%
3-2 0.5%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
T4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
T5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(19.0%) 2-0(8.1%) 2-1(5.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing T=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
TNS Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Colwyn Bay Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
TNS
Overall
8.0
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Colwyn Bay
Overall
4.3
Scoring
4.3
Defence
4.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 45%
Draw & BTTS Yes 1%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 22%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 42%
Draw & Over 2.5 1%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
13.02.26
PL: Colwyn Bay0
The New Saints2
13.01.26
PL: The New Saints1
Colwyn Bay0
25.08.25
PL: Colwyn Bay1
The New Saints1
15.12.24
FAC: The New Saints4
Colwyn Bay1
31.10.23
PL: The New Saints6
Colwyn Bay1
29.08.23
PL: Colwyn Bay0
The New Saints1
20.03.22
FAC: The New Saints1
Colwyn Bay0
Recent Form
TNS
14.03.26
PL: Penybont1
The New Saints2
W
03.03.26
PL: Connah’s Q.1
The New Saints2
W
28.02.26
CUP: The New Saints0
Barry2
L
20.02.26
PL: The New Saints2
Caernarfon1
W
13.02.26
PL: Colwyn Bay0
The New Saints2
W
07.02.26
PL: The New Saints6
Penybont0
W
24.01.26
PL: The New Saints1
Barry0
W
13.01.26
PL: The New Saints1
Colwyn Bay0
W
06.01.26
PL: The New Saints2
Bala1
W
31.12.25
PL: Connah’s Q.3
The New Saints1
L
Colwyn Bay
14.03.26
PL: Colwyn Bay3
Barry1
W
27.02.26
PL: Caernarfon3
Colwyn Bay0
L
21.02.26
PL: Colwyn Bay3
Penybont1
W
13.02.26
PL: Colwyn Bay0
The New Saints2
L
07.02.26
PL: Barry0
Colwyn Bay1
W
31.01.26
FAC: Caernarfon4
Colwyn Bay1
L
24.01.26
PL: Colwyn Bay2
Connah’s Q.2
D
13.01.26
PL: The New Saints1
Colwyn Bay0
L
01.01.26
PL: Colwyn Bay1
Flint2
L
27.12.25
PL: Caernarfon1
Colwyn Bay2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 20th March 2026, TNS host Colwyn Bay in Wales Cymru Premier. Our analysis desk recommends TNS to win as the standout selection.

TNS arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Colwyn Bay are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 1D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour TNS, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Colwyn Bay's 0, with 7 draws from 7 encounters. Both teams have scored in 43% of those meetings.

Our verdict: tns to win at odds of 1.19 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Wales Cymru Premier game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.19. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 20 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for TNS vs Colwyn Bay?
Our selection is 1 — TNS to win, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 46%.
What is TNS's current form?
TNS have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Colwyn Bay been performing recently?
Colwyn Bay have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
TNS lead with 0 wins versus Colwyn Bay's 0, with 7 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 43%.
⚠️
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