WON Case WON Slavia Mozyr 2-0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Slavia Mozyr

Q: What is the recommended bet for Slavia Mozyr vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk?

Our selection is 1 — Slavia Mozyr to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 51%.

Q: What is Slavia Mozyr's current form?

Slavia Mozyr have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Arsenal Dzerzhinsk been performing recently?

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Slavia Mozyr lead with 1 wins versus Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's 1, with 3 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

Home Side

W W L W W

4W 0D 1L ▼ Trending Down

2-0

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Away Side

L L W L L

1W 0D 4L ▲ Trending Up

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MODERATE

51%

Sunday, 8th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Slavia Mozyr to win

Slavia Mozyr 50%

Draw 30%

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob73.5%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-22.5%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBS<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<D<<<<<<<<C9886AF714DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 8 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Slavia Mozyr to win

1.36

BTTS — No70% Slavia Mozyr Clean Sheet60%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Slavia Mozyr vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Competition: Belarus Cup Date: Sunday, 8th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Slavia Mozyr to win) Odds: 1.36 Confidence: 51% Also: BTTS — No (70%) Also: Slavia Mozyr Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: C9886AF71

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Head to Head

Record

Slavia Mozyr

Draws

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Meetings

Avg Goals

60%

BTTS

20%

Over 2.5

Against Filing Slavia Mozyr won 1 of the last 5 meetings (3 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Slavia Mozyr

Metric

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

1.6

Goals For / Game

0.4

0.8

Goals Against / Game

2.8

60%

Clean Sheets

20%

4-0-1

W — D — L

1-0-4

Win Rate

80%

20%

2.8

Avg Goals

70%

Over 1.5

60%

Over 2.5

30%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 6.1%

0-1 3.7%

0-2 1.1%

0-3 0.2%

0-4 0.0%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 13.4%

1-1 8.0%

1-2 2.4%

1-3 0.5%

1-4 0.1%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 14.7%

2-1 8.8%

2-2 2.7%

2-3 0.5%

2-4 0.1%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 10.8%

3-1 6.5%

3-2 1.9%

3-3 0.4%

3-4 0.1%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 5.9%

4-1 3.6%

4-2 1.1%

4-3 0.2%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 2.6%

5-1 1.6%

5-2 0.5%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 2-0(14.7%) 1-0(13.4%) 3-0(10.8%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓ A=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Slavia Mozyr Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Slavia Mozyr

Overall

8.0 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

7.3 —

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Overall

2.0 —

Scoring

1.3 —

Defence

0.7 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%

Home Win & BTTS No 56%

Draw & BTTS Yes 0%

Draw & BTTS No 0%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 6%

Away Win & BTTS No 14%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 48%

Home Win & Under 2.5 32%

Draw & Over 2.5 0%

Draw & Under 2.5 0%

Away Win & Over 2.5 12%

Away Win & Under 2.5 8%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ VL (Sep 12, 2025): Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1

Slavia Mozyr0

⚽ VL (Apr 25, 2025): Slavia Mozyr1

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1

⚽ VL (Sep 14, 2024): Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1

Slavia Mozyr1

⚽ VL (Apr 28, 2024): Slavia Mozyr3

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0

⚽ VL (Oct 22, 2022): Slavia Mozyr1

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1

Recent Form

Slavia Mozyr

⚽ CF (Feb 28, 2026): Slavia Mozyr1

Zhodino0

⚽ CF (Feb 25, 2026): Slavia Mozyr1

Belshina0

⚽ CF (Feb 21, 2026): Slavia Mozyr1

Din. Minsk3

⚽ CF (Feb 14, 2026): Slavia Mozyr2

Dnepr Mogilev0

⚽ CF (Feb 7, 2026): FC Minsk1

Slavia Mozyr3

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

⚽ CF (Feb 28, 2026): FC Gomel4

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0

⚽ CF (Feb 7, 2026): Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0

Baranovici4

⚽ CF (Jan 31, 2026): BATE0

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1

⚽ CF (Jan 24, 2026): Isloch4

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0

⚽ CF (Jan 21, 2026): Din. Minsk 22

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Sunday, 8th March 2026, Slavia Mozyr host Arsenal Dzerzhinsk in Belarus Cup. Our analysis desk recommends Slavia Mozyr to win as the standout selection.

Slavia Mozyr arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 0D 4L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Slavia Mozyr, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's 1, with 3 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: slavia mozyr to win at odds of 1.36 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 8 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Slavia Mozyr vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk?

Our selection is 1 — Slavia Mozyr to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 51%.

What is Slavia Mozyr's current form?

Slavia Mozyr have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Arsenal Dzerzhinsk been performing recently?

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Slavia Mozyr lead with 1 wins versus Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's 1, with 3 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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