WON Case WON Tammeka 0-1 Levadia
Fixture Case File · Ref V
T

Tammeka

Home Side
W W W L L
5W 1D 4L ▲ Trending Up
VS
0-1
L
Levadia
Away Side
W W W W W
8W 2D 0L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
68%
Saturday, 30th May 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Levadia to win
Tammeka 20%
Draw 30%
Levadia 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob80%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-12%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBT<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<L<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<4A1896E674DFB2609212M2609219<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 31 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — Levadia to win
1.25
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Tammeka vs Levadia Competition: Estonia Meistriliiga Date: Saturday, 30th May 2026 Pick: 2 (Levadia to win) Odds: 1.25 Confidence: 68% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ledger Ref: 4A1896E67
Head to Head
Record
0
Tammeka
1
Draws
9
Levadia
10
Meetings
3.9
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Levadia won 9 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Tammeka
Metric
Levadia
1.3
Goals For / Game
3.1
1.4
Goals Against / Game
0.7
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
5-1-4
W — D — L
8-2-0
Win Rate
50%
80%
3.3
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
T0
0-0 3.9%
0-1 8.7%
0-2 9.8%
0-3 7.4%
0-4 4.1%
0-5 1.9%
T1
1-0 3.9%
1-1 8.7%
1-2 9.8%
1-3 7.4%
1-4 4.1%
1-5 1.9%
T2
2-0 1.9%
2-1 4.4%
2-2 4.9%
2-3 3.7%
2-4 2.1%
2-5 0.9%
T3
3-0 0.7%
3-1 1.5%
3-2 1.6%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.3%
T4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
T5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-2(9.8%) 1-2(9.8%) 0-1(8.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing T=Home goals ↓   L=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Tammeka Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Levadia Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Tammeka
Overall
5.3
Scoring
4.3
Defence
5.3
Levadia
Overall
8.6
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Away Win & BTTS No 22%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 24%
Home Win & Under 2.5 10%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 39%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Levadia2
08.02.26CF
Levadia4
Tammeka2
05.10.25ML
Levadia3
Tammeka0
13.09.25ML
Tammeka2
Levadia2
26.04.25ML
Levadia4
Tammeka0
08.03.25ML
Tammeka2
Levadia3
18.01.25CF
Levadia3
Tammeka1
19.10.24ML
Tammeka0
Levadia3
16.08.24ML
Levadia3
Tammeka1
16.06.24ML
Levadia2
Tammeka1
Recent Form
Tammeka
15.05.26ML
Tammeka3
Nomme Utd1
W
08.05.26ML
Tammeka1
Kuressaare0
W
01.05.26ML
Paide0
Tammeka1
W
25.04.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Tammeka0
L
22.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Levadia2
L
18.04.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Tammeka0
D
12.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Paide4
L
07.04.26ML
Narva3
Tammeka0
L
03.04.26ML
Tammeka3
Flora1
W
21.03.26ML
Nomme Utd2
Tammeka3
W
Levadia
24.05.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Levadia6
W
17.05.26ML
Paide1
Levadia3
W
09.05.26ML
Levadia3
Harju JK Laagri0
W
02.05.26ML
Kuressaare1
Levadia2
W
26.04.26ML
Levadia7
Narva0
W
22.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Levadia2
W
19.04.26ML
Levadia4
Flora0
W
12.04.26ML
Kalju1
Levadia1
D
08.04.26ML
Levadia2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
W
04.04.26ML
Levadia1
Nomme Utd1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 30th May 2026, Tammeka host Levadia in Estonia Meistriliiga. Our analysis desk recommends Levadia to win as the standout selection.

Tammeka arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Levadia are travelling well, with a record of 8W 2D 0L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Tammeka, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Levadia's 9, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: levadia to win at odds of 1.25 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Estonia Meistriliiga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.25. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 31 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Tammeka vs Levadia?
Our selection is 2 — Levadia to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Tammeka's current form?
Tammeka have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Levadia been performing recently?
Levadia have recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Tammeka lead with 0 wins versus Levadia's 9, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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