WON Case WON Auda 2-0 Ogre United
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Auda

Home Side
W W L L W
6W 1D 3L ▼ Trending Down
VS
2-0
O
Ogre United
Away Side
D L L L L
0W 3D 7L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
50%
Saturday, 30th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Auda to win
Auda 60%
Draw 20%
Ogre United 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob84.7%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-34.7%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<O<<<<U<<<<<<<<<<<68EAAB9E54DFB2609212M2609219<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 31 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Auda to win
1.18
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes75%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Auda vs Ogre United Competition: Latvia Virsliga Date: Saturday, 30th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Auda to win) Odds: 1.18 Confidence: 50% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS — Yes (75%) Ledger Ref: 68EAAB9E5
Head to Head
Record
0
Auda
1
Draws
0
Ogre United
1
Meetings
2
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Auda won 0 of the last 1 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Auda
Metric
Ogre United
2.2
Goals For / Game
1
1.6
Goals Against / Game
2.8
20%
Clean Sheets
0%
6-1-3
W — D — L
0-3-7
Win Rate
60%
0%
3.8
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
O0
O1
O2
O3
O4
O5
A0
0-0 2.2%
0-1 2.9%
0-2 1.9%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 5.6%
1-1 7.3%
1-2 4.7%
1-3 2.1%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
A2
2-0 7.0%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.6%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
A3
3-0 5.8%
3-1 7.6%
3-2 4.9%
3-3 2.1%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
A4
4-0 3.6%
4-1 4.7%
4-2 3.1%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 1.8%
5-1 2.4%
5-2 1.5%
5-3 0.7%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(9.1%) 3-1(7.6%) 2-0(7.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   O=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Auda Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Ogre United Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Auda
Overall
6.3
Scoring
7.3
Defence
4.7
Ogre United
Overall
0.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
0.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 56%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 19%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 53%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.04.26VIR
Ogre United1
Auda1
Recent Form
Auda
26.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
Auda1
W
22.05.26VIR
Auda3
FK Liepaja1
W
17.05.26VIR
Auda0
RFS3
L
12.05.26VIR
Riga FC4
Auda1
L
07.05.26VIR
Auda7
Grobina0
W
01.05.26VIR
Super Nova1
Auda2
W
26.04.26VIR
Auda2
Tukums 20001
W
21.04.26VIR
Jelgava2
Auda3
W
17.04.26VIR
Ogre United1
Auda1
D
12.04.26VIR
Auda2
BFC Daugavpils3
L
Ogre United
25.05.26VIR
Ogre United1
Grobina1
D
21.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils3
Ogre United1
L
16.05.26VIR
Super Nova3
Ogre United1
L
12.05.26VIR
FK Liepaja4
Ogre United1
L
07.05.26VIR
Tukums 20006
Ogre United1
L
02.05.26VIR
Ogre United3
RFS4
L
27.04.26VIR
Ogre United0
Jelgava1
L
22.04.26VIR
Riga FC4
Ogre United0
L
17.04.26VIR
Ogre United1
Auda1
D
13.04.26VIR
Ogre United1
Grobina1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 30th May 2026, Auda host Ogre United in Latvia Virsliga. Our analysis desk recommends Auda to win as the standout selection.

Auda arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Ogre United are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 3D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Auda, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Ogre United's 0, with 1 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: auda to win at odds of 1.18 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Latvia Virsliga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.18. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 31 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Auda vs Ogre United?
Our selection is 1 — Auda to win, priced at approximately 1.18. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Auda's current form?
Auda have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ogre United been performing recently?
Ogre United have recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Auda lead with 0 wins versus Ogre United's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
⚠️
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