LOST Case LOST Swansea W 0-1 TNS W
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Swansea W

Home Side
L L L W W
5W 0D 5L ▼ Trending Down
VS
0-1
T
TNS W
Away Side
L L L L W
3W 2D 5L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
57%
Sunday, 29th March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Swansea W to win
Swansea W 60%
Draw 20%
TNS W 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob75.2%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-18.2%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<<TNS<W<<<<<<<<<<<<4582DAFC14DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 29 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Swansea W to win
1.33
Over 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Swansea W vs TNS W Competition: Wales Premier Women Date: Sunday, 29th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Swansea W to win) Odds: 1.33 Confidence: 57% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Ledger Ref: 4582DAFC1
Head to Head
Record
6
Swansea W
2
Draws
2
TNS W
10
Meetings
3.9
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
90%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Swansea W won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Swansea W
Metric
TNS W
2.9
Goals For / Game
0.4
2.3
Goals Against / Game
1
10%
Clean Sheets
0%
5-0-5
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
50%
30%
3.3
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
S0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 5.0%
0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.5%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
S1
1-0 7.2%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 6.6%
1-3 3.0%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.3%
S2
2-0 7.0%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 6.4%
2-3 2.9%
2-4 1.0%
2-5 0.3%
S3
3-0 4.6%
3-1 6.2%
3-2 4.2%
3-3 1.9%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
S4
4-0 2.2%
4-1 3.0%
4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
S5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.5%) 1-0(7.2%) 2-0(7.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Swansea W Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
TNS W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Swansea W
Overall
5.0
Scoring
9.7
Defence
2.3
TNS W
Overall
3.6
Scoring
1.3
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%
Home Win & BTTS No 25%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 36%
Home Win & Under 2.5 20%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 21%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
01.03.26
PLW: TNS2
Swansea City5
14.01.26
PLW: Swansea City3
TNS0
12.10.25
PLW: Swansea City2
TNS1
09.02.25
CUP: Swansea City1
TNS3
15.12.24
PLW: TNS1
Swansea City0
13.10.24
PLW: Swansea City0
TNS5
28.01.24
PLW: TNS0
Swansea City5
22.10.23
PLW: TNS1
Swansea City2
02.04.23
PLW: TNS2
Swansea City1
19.03.23
PLW: Swansea City4
TNS1
Recent Form
Swansea W
25.03.26
PLW: Swansea City1
Wrexham7
L
22.03.26
PLW: Cardiff City2
Swansea City1
L
15.03.26
PLW: Swansea City1
Cardiff City2
L
01.03.26
PLW: TNS2
Swansea City5
W
11.02.26
PLW: Briton Ferry1
Swansea City3
W
25.01.26
PLW: Swansea City7
Barry Town1
W
14.01.26
PLW: Swansea City3
TNS0
W
07.12.25
PLW: Pontypridd1
Swansea City5
W
30.11.25
PLW: Wrexham4
Swansea City2
L
16.11.25
PLW: Swansea City1
Cardiff City3
L
TNS W
22.03.26
PLW: TNS0
Wrexham1
L
15.03.26
PLW: Wrexham4
TNS1
L
01.03.26
PLW: TNS2
Swansea City5
L
15.02.26
PLW: TNS1
Cardiff City5
L
01.02.26
PLW: Pontypridd0
The New Saints8
W
25.01.26
PLW: The New Saints2
Aberystwyth0
W
14.01.26
PLW: Swansea City3
TNS0
L
07.12.25
PLW: TNS1
Barry Town1
D
30.11.25
PLW: Cardiff City3
TNS3
D
16.11.25
PLW: The New Saints3
Briton Ferry2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 29th March 2026, Swansea W host TNS W in Wales Premier Women. Our analysis desk recommends Swansea W to win as the standout selection.

Swansea W arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

TNS W are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Swansea W, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to TNS W's 2, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: swansea w to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Wales Premier Women game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.33. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 29 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Swansea W vs TNS W?
Our selection is 1 — Swansea W to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 57%.
What is Swansea W's current form?
Swansea W have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has TNS W been performing recently?
TNS W have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Swansea W lead with 6 wins versus TNS W's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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