LOST Case LOST South Sudan 0-1 Djibouti
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

South Sudan

Home Side
W L D L D
2W 3D 5L ▲ Trending Up
VS
0-1
D
Djibouti
Away Side
L L L L L
0W 0D 10L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
49%
Sunday, 29th March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on South Sudan to win
South Sudan 50%
Draw 30%
Djibouti 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob74.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-25.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<S<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<D<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<E52C760274DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 29 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — South Sudan to win
1.34
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals80% BTTS — No65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
South Sudan vs Djibouti Competition: AFCON Qualifiers Date: Sunday, 29th March 2026 Pick: 1 (South Sudan to win) Odds: 1.34 Confidence: 49% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: BTTS — No (65%) Ledger Ref: E52C76027
Head to Head
Record
5
South Sudan
0
Draws
1
Djibouti
6
Meetings
3.5
Avg Goals
17%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing South Sudan won 5 of the last 6 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
South Sudan
Metric
Djibouti
1
Goals For / Game
0.3
1.7
Goals Against / Game
4.1
30%
Clean Sheets
0%
2-3-5
W — D — L
0-0-10
Win Rate
20%
0%
3.6
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
S0
0-0 2.9%
0-1 2.9%
0-2 1.4%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 7.3%
1-1 7.3%
1-2 3.7%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
S2
2-0 9.3%
2-1 9.3%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.6%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
S3
3-0 7.9%
3-1 7.9%
3-2 4.0%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
S4
4-0 5.1%
4-1 5.1%
4-2 2.5%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 2.6%
5-1 2.6%
5-2 1.3%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(9.3%) 2-1(9.3%) 3-0(7.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   D=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
South Sudan Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Djibouti Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
South Sudan
Overall
2.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
4.3
Djibouti
Overall
0.0
Scoring
1.0
Defence
0.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 37%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 28%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 20%
Draw & Over 2.5 28%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
26.03.26
AC QLF: Djibouti0
South Sudan4
27.03.22
AC QLF: South Sudan1
Djibouti0
23.03.22
AC QLF: Djibouti2
South Sudan4
28.03.17
AC QLF: South Sudan6
Djibouti0
22.03.17
AC QLF: Djibouti2
South Sudan0
15.11.23
CHA: South Sudan2
Djibouti0
Recent Form
South Sudan
26.03.26
AC QLF: Djibouti0
South Sudan4
W
25.11.25
ARC: Syria2
South Sudan0
L
13.10.25
WC QLF: South Sudan0
Togo0
D
10.10.25
WC QLF: South Sudan0
Senegal5
L
09.09.25
WC QLF: Mauritania0
South Sudan0
D
05.09.25
WC QLF: South Sudan1
DR Congo4
L
25.03.25
WC QLF: Sudan1
South Sudan1
D
21.03.25
WC QLF: DR Congo1
South Sudan0
L
28.12.24
ANC QLF: Rwanda2
South Sudan1
L
22.12.24
ANC QLF: South Sudan3
Rwanda2
W
Djibouti
26.03.26
AC QLF: Djibouti0
South Sudan4
L
26.11.25
ARC: Bahrain1
Djibouti0
L
17.11.25
FI: Morocco B7
Djibouti0
L
15.11.25
FI: Morocco B6
Djibouti0
L
12.10.25
WC QLF: Djibouti1
Sierra Leone2
L
08.10.25
WC QLF: Djibouti0
Egypt3
L
08.09.25
WC QLF: Guinea-Bissau2
Djibouti0
L
05.09.25
WC QLF: Djibouti0
Burkina Faso6
L
24.03.25
WC QLF: Ethiopia6
Djibouti1
L
21.03.25
WC QLF: Burkina Faso4
Djibouti1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 29th March 2026, South Sudan host Djibouti in AFCON Qualifiers. Our analysis desk recommends South Sudan to win as the standout selection.

South Sudan arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Djibouti are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 0D 10L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour South Sudan, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Djibouti's 1, with 0 draws from 6 encounters. Both teams have scored in 17% of those meetings.

Our verdict: south sudan to win at odds of 1.34 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This AFCON Qualifiers game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.34. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 29 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for South Sudan vs Djibouti?
Our selection is 1 — South Sudan to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 49%.
What is South Sudan's current form?
South Sudan have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Djibouti been performing recently?
Djibouti have recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 10 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
South Sudan lead with 5 wins versus Djibouti's 1, with 0 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 17%.
⚠️
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