WON Case WON Suduva 5-0 Riteriai
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Suduva

Home Side
D D L W D
4W 5D 1L ▲ Trending Up
VS
5-0
R
Riteriai
Away Side
D L L L L
2W 2D 6L ▲ Trending Up
CAUTION
34%
Friday, 3rd April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Suduva to win
Suduva 50%
Draw 30%
Riteriai 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob74.1%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-40.1%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<R<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<955D85A5D4DFB2607202M2607209<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 3 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Suduva to win
1.35
BTTS — No70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Suduva vs Riteriai Competition: Lithuania TopLyga Date: Friday, 3rd April 2026 Pick: 1 (Suduva to win) Odds: 1.35 Confidence: 34% Also: BTTS — No (70%) Ledger Ref: 955D85A5D
Head to Head
Record
0
Suduva
8
Draws
2
Riteriai
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Suduva won 0 of the last 10 meetings (8 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Suduva
Metric
Riteriai
0
Goals For / Game
0.9
0
Goals Against / Game
2.3
0%
Clean Sheets
0%
4-5-1
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
40%
20%
1.6
Avg Goals
50%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
S0
0-0 20.2%
0-1 9.1%
0-2 2.0%
0-3 0.3%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 23.2%
1-1 10.5%
1-2 2.4%
1-3 0.4%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
S2
2-0 13.4%
2-1 6.0%
2-2 1.4%
2-3 0.2%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
S3
3-0 5.1%
3-1 2.3%
3-2 0.5%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 0.7%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(23.2%) 2-0(13.4%) 2-1(6.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   R=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Suduva Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Riteriai Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Suduva
Overall
5.5
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Riteriai
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
2.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 26%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 6%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 17%
Home Win & Under 2.5 25%
Draw & Over 2.5 15%
Draw & Under 2.5 22%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 13%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.10.25
A Lyga: Riteriai0
Sūduva0
20.07.25
A Lyga: Sūduva0
Riteriai0
01.06.25
A Lyga: Sūduva4
Riteriai1
01.03.25
A Lyga: Riteriai3
Sūduva4
12.11.23
A Lyga: Sūduva0
Riteriai3
18.08.23
A Lyga: Riteriai1
Sūduva2
10.06.23
A Lyga: Sūduva0
Riteriai0
18.04.23
A Lyga: Riteriai1
Sūduva0
09.10.22
A Lyga: Riteriai2
Sūduva3
21.08.22
A Lyga: Sūduva2
Riteriai1
Recent Form
Suduva
21.03.26
A Lyga: Kauno Žalgiris1
Sūduva1
D
14.03.26
A Lyga: Sūduva0
Hegelmann0
D
10.03.26
A Lyga: Žalgiris1
Sūduva0
L
07.03.26
A Lyga: Sūduva2
TransINVEST0
W
01.03.26
A Lyga: Sūduva0
Šiauliai FA0
D
22.02.26
A Lyga: FK Panevėžys0
Sūduva0
D
14.02.26
Friendly: Sūduva5
BFC Daugavpils3
W
07.02.26
Friendly: Sūduva3
Suwalki2
W
31.01.26
Friendly: Sūduva1
BE1 NFA0
W
24.01.26
Friendly: Sūduva1
Grobiņa1
D
Riteriai
20.03.26
A Lyga: Riteriai1
Šiauliai FA1
D
15.03.26
A Lyga: FK Panevėžys2
Riteriai1
L
11.03.26
A Lyga: Riteriai0
Džiugas Telšiai2
L
08.03.26
A Lyga: Banga Gargždai5
Riteriai0
L
01.03.26
A Lyga: TransINVEST3
Riteriai0
L
23.02.26
A Lyga: Riteriai1
Kauno Žalgiris2
L
07.02.26
Friendly: TransINVEST4
Riteriai0
L
28.01.26
Friendly: Riteriai2
BFC Daugavpils1
W
10.01.26
Friendly: Riteriai2
Banga Gargždai2
D
22.11.25
A Lyga: Riteriai2
Neptūnas1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 3rd April 2026, Suduva host Riteriai in Lithuania TopLyga. Our analysis desk recommends Suduva to win as the standout selection.

Suduva arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Riteriai are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Suduva, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Riteriai's 2, with 8 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: suduva to win at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Lithuania TopLyga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.35. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 3 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Suduva vs Riteriai?
Our selection is 1 — Suduva to win, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 34%.
What is Suduva's current form?
Suduva have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Riteriai been performing recently?
Riteriai have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Suduva lead with 0 wins versus Riteriai's 2, with 8 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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