WON Case WON Raja Casablanca 1-0 Difaa El Jadidi
Fixture Case File · Ref V
R

Raja Casablanca

Home Side
L W W W D
5W 3D 2L → Holding Steady
VS
1-0
D
Difaa El Jadidi
Away Side
W W D L W
6W 3D 1L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
77%
Sunday, 3rd May 2026 Case Verdict
Over 1.5
Filing on over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob77.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-0.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBR<<<<C<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<D<<<<<E<<J<<<<<<<31BC92CD84DFB2608242M2608249<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 4 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.29
Under 2.5 Goals70% Difaa El Jadidi Clean Sheet60%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Raja Casablanca vs Difaa El Jadidi Competition: Morocco Botola Pro Date: Sunday, 3rd May 2026 Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals) Odds: 1.29 Confidence: 77% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Difaa El Jadidi Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: 31BC92CD8
Head to Head
Record
7
Raja Casablanca
2
Draws
1
Difaa El Jadidi
10
Meetings
2.4
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Over 1.5 in 80% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Raja Casablanca
Metric
Difaa El Jadidi
1.5
Goals For / Game
1
0.6
Goals Against / Game
0.5
50%
Clean Sheets
60%
5-3-2
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate
50%
60%
1.8
Avg Goals
55%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
R0
0-0 16.5%
0-1 13.2%
0-2 5.3%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
R1
1-0 16.5%
1-1 13.2%
1-2 5.3%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
R2
2-0 8.3%
2-1 6.6%
2-2 2.6%
2-3 0.7%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
R3
3-0 2.8%
3-1 2.2%
3-2 0.9%
3-3 0.2%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
R4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-0(16.5%) 1-0(16.5%) 0-1(13.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing R=Home goals ↓   D=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Raja Casablanca
Overall
5.9
Scoring
5.0
Defence
8.0
Difaa El Jadidi
Overall
6.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
8.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 25%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 30%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
28.09.25BOT
Difaa El Jadidi0
Raja Casablanca2
08.05.25BOT
Raja Casablanca3
Difaa El Jadidi2
25.12.24BOT
Difaa El Jadidi2
Raja Casablanca0
23.06.23BOT
Raja Casablanca3
Difaa El Jadidi2
24.01.23BOT
Difaa El Jadidi0
Raja Casablanca0
06.05.22BOT
Raja Casablanca2
Difaa El Jadidi0
30.10.21BOT
Difaa El Jadidi0
Raja Casablanca2
24.06.21BOT
Raja Casablanca2
Difaa El Jadidi0
28.02.21BOT
Difaa El Jadidi0
Raja Casablanca0
20.09.20BOT
Raja Casablanca3
Difaa El Jadidi1
Recent Form
Raja Casablanca
30.04.26BOT
FAR Rabat2
Raja Casablanca1
L
26.04.26BOT
Raja Casablanca4
FUS Rabat1
W
07.03.26BOT
Raja Casablanca2
Olympique de Safi0
W
01.03.26BOT
Hassania Agadir0
Raja Casablanca1
W
25.02.26BOT
Berkane1
Raja Casablanca1
D
22.02.26BOT
Raja Casablanca2
IR Tanger0
W
13.02.26BOT
Raja Casablanca0
Yacoub El Mansour0
D
08.02.26BOT
COD Meknes1
Raja Casablanca0
L
01.02.26BOT
Raja Casablanca3
Renaissance Zemamra0
W
25.01.26BOT
Union Touarga1
Raja Casablanca1
D
Difaa El Jadidi
30.04.26BOT
Difaa El Jadidi2
Renaissance Zemamra1
W
25.04.26BOT
COD Meknes0
Difaa El Jadidi1
W
06.04.26BOT
Wydad AC1
Difaa El Jadidi1
D
08.03.26BOT
Berkane2
Difaa El Jadidi1
L
28.02.26BOT
Difaa El Jadidi2
Yacoub El Mansour1
W
21.02.26BOT
Kawkab Marrakech0
Difaa El Jadidi0
D
14.02.26BOT
Difaa El Jadidi1
Union Touarga0
W
31.01.26BOT
Difaa El Jadidi0
Maghreb Fez0
D
24.01.26BOT
Dcheira0
Difaa El Jadidi1
W
09.11.25BOT
Difaa El Jadidi1
FUS Rabat0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 3rd May 2026, Raja Casablanca host Difaa El Jadidi in Morocco Botola Pro. Our analysis desk recommends over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Raja Casablanca arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Difaa El Jadidi are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 3D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Raja Casablanca, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Difaa El Jadidi's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Morocco Botola Pro game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is Over 1.5, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.29. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 4 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Raja Casablanca vs Difaa El Jadidi?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 77%.
What is Raja Casablanca's current form?
Raja Casablanca have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Difaa El Jadidi been performing recently?
Difaa El Jadidi have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Raja Casablanca lead with 7 wins versus Difaa El Jadidi's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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