WON Case WON Montana 0-1 CSKA Sofia
Fixture Case File · Ref V
M

Montana

Home Side
L L L L L
0W 1D 9L → Holding Steady
VS
0-1
C
CSKA Sofia
Away Side
W W L W W
5W 0D 5L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
62%
Wednesday, 8th April 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on CSKA Sofia to win
Montana 20%
Draw 20%
CSKA Sofia 60%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds1.67
Implied Prob76.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-14.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBM<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<CSKA<S<<<<<<<<<<<84203A1614DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 9 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — CSKA Sofia to win
1.31
Under 2.5 Goals75% BTTS — No90%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Montana vs CSKA Sofia Competition: Bulgaria EFBET League Date: Wednesday, 8th April 2026 Pick: 2 (CSKA Sofia to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 62% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (75%) Also: BTTS — No (90%) Ledger Ref: 84203A161
Head to Head
Record
2
Montana
0
Draws
8
CSKA Sofia
10
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing CSKA Sofia won 8 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Montana
Metric
CSKA Sofia
0.1
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.1
10%
Clean Sheets
40%
0-1-9
W — D — L
5-0-5
Win Rate
0%
50%
1.8
Avg Goals
50%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
M0
0-0 17.4%
0-1 20.0%
0-2 11.5%
0-3 4.4%
0-4 1.3%
0-5 0.3%
M1
1-0 10.4%
1-1 12.0%
1-2 6.9%
1-3 2.6%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
M2
2-0 3.1%
2-1 3.6%
2-2 2.1%
2-3 0.8%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.1%
M3
3-0 0.6%
3-1 0.7%
3-2 0.4%
3-3 0.2%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
M4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.1%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(20.0%) 0-2(11.5%) 1-2(6.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing M=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Montana Win
20%
5
Draw
20%
5
CSKA Sofia Win
60%
1.67
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Montana
Overall
0.3
Scoring
0.3
Defence
6.0
CSKA Sofia
Overall
5.0
Scoring
3.7
Defence
6.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Home Win & BTTS No 0%
Draw & BTTS Yes 1%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 82%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 0%
Home Win & Under 2.5 0%
Draw & Over 2.5 2%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 68%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.11.25
First League: CSKA Sofia3
Montana1
21.04.21
First League: CSKA Sofia6
Montana0
08.11.20
First League: Montana1
CSKA Sofia2
31.07.20
Friendly: CSKA Sofia2
Montana3
25.09.18
Bulgarian Cup: Montana0
CSKA Sofia2
06.10.17
Friendly: CSKA Sofia3
Montana1
11.03.17
First League: CSKA Sofia2
Montana1
21.10.16
First League: Montana0
CSKA Sofia2
24.05.16
Bulgarian Cup: Montana0
CSKA Sofia1
24.09.14
Bulgarian Cup: Montana2
CSKA Sofia1
Recent Form
Montana
04.04.26
First League: Arda Kardzhali2
PFC Montana1
L
22.03.26
First League: PFC Montana0
Beroe1
L
15.03.26
First League: Cherno More1
PFC Montana0
L
09.03.26
First League: PFC Montana0
Ludogorets3
L
03.03.26
First League: Spartak Varna1
PFC Montana0
L
27.02.26
First League: PFC Montana0
Botev Plovdiv0
D
21.02.26
First League: Dobrudzha1
PFC Montana0
L
16.02.26
First League: Septemvri Sofia1
PFC Montana0
L
06.02.26
First League: PFC Montana0
CSKA 1948 Sofia1
L
29.01.26
Friendly: PFC Montana0
Leningradets -1
CSKA Sofia
04.04.26
First League: PFC Beroe0
PFC CSKA Sofia3
W
22.03.26
First League: PFC CSKA Sofia2
FC Dobrudzha0
W
14.03.26
First League: PFC Ludogorets3
PFC CSKA Sofia0
L
08.03.26
First League: PFC CSKA Sofia2
FC Lokomotiv Sofia0
W
04.03.26
First League: PFC CSKA Sofia1
POFC Botev Vratsa0
W
28.02.26
First League: PFC Septemvri Sofia2
PFC CSKA Sofia0
L
21.02.26
First League: PFC CSKA Sofia1
PFC Slavia Sofia0
W
14.02.26
First League: CSKA 1948 Sofia0
PFC CSKA Sofia2
W
10.02.26
Bulgarian Cup: PFC CSKA Sofia2
CSKA 1948 Sofia0
W
06.02.26
First League: PFC CSKA Sofia3
FC Arda Kardzhali1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 8th April 2026, Montana host CSKA Sofia in Bulgaria EFBET League. Our analysis desk recommends CSKA Sofia to win as the standout selection.

Montana arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats from their last 10 outings.

CSKA Sofia are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 0D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Montana, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to CSKA Sofia's 8, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: cska sofia to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Bulgaria EFBET League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.31. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 9 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Montana vs CSKA Sofia?
Our selection is 2 — CSKA Sofia to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Montana's current form?
Montana have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 9 of their last 10 matches.
How has CSKA Sofia been performing recently?
CSKA Sofia have recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Montana lead with 2 wins versus CSKA Sofia's 8, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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