WON Case WON Llaneros W 1-4 Santa Fe W
Fixture Case File · Ref V
L

Llaneros W

Home Side
D L L W L
2W 3D 5L ▼ Trending Down
VS
1-4
S
Santa Fe W
Away Side
W W D D D
5W 4D 1L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
63%
Thursday, 28th May 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Santa Fe W to win
Llaneros W 20%
Draw 30%
Santa Fe W 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob73.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-10.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBL<<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<S<<<<<F<<W<<<<<<<58972DBC54DFB2609222M2609229<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 28 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — Santa Fe W to win
1.36
Under 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — No65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Llaneros W vs Santa Fe W Competition: Colombia Liga Women Date: Thursday, 28th May 2026 Pick: 2 (Santa Fe W to win) Odds: 1.36 Confidence: 63% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: BTTS — No (65%) Ledger Ref: 58972DBC5
Head to Head
Record
0
Llaneros W
0
Draws
9
Santa Fe W
9
Meetings
4.2
Avg Goals
44%
BTTS
78%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Santa Fe W won 9 of 9 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Llaneros W
Metric
Santa Fe W
0.6
Goals For / Game
1.6
1.7
Goals Against / Game
0.5
30%
Clean Sheets
50%
2-3-5
W — D — L
5-4-1
Win Rate
20%
50%
2.2
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
L0
0-0 11.1%
0-1 18.3%
0-2 15.1%
0-3 8.3%
0-4 3.4%
0-5 1.1%
L1
1-0 6.1%
1-1 10.1%
1-2 8.3%
1-3 4.6%
1-4 1.9%
1-5 0.6%
L2
2-0 1.7%
2-1 2.8%
2-2 2.3%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.2%
L3
3-0 0.3%
3-1 0.5%
3-2 0.4%
3-3 0.2%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 0.0%
4-1 0.1%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(18.3%) 0-2(15.1%) 0-3(8.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing L=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Llaneros W Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Santa Fe W Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Llaneros W
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.0
Defence
4.3
Santa Fe W
Overall
6.2
Scoring
5.3
Defence
8.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Home Win & BTTS No 12%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 21%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 31%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 7%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 21%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 31%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.06.24LW
Llaneros W0
Santa Fe1
23.05.23LW
Santa Fe W2
Llaneros0
19.05.22LW
Santa Fe W4
Llaneros0
15.05.22LW
Llaneros W0
Santa Fe6
19.03.22LW
Llaneros W1
Santa Fe3
29.08.21LW
Santa Fe W3
Llaneros1
01.08.21LW
Llaneros W2
Santa Fe4
15.11.20LW
Llaneros W0
Santa Fe5
01.11.20LW
Santa Fe W5
Llaneros1
Recent Form
Llaneros W
22.05.26LW
Once Caldas W0
Llaneros W0
D
15.05.26LW
Llaneros W0
Dep. Cali W5
L
08.05.26LW
Inter Bogotá W2
Llaneros W0
L
01.05.26LW
Llaneros W2
Junior W1
W
23.04.26LW
Millonarios W4
Llaneros W0
L
12.04.26LW
Llaneros W2
Inter Palmira W0
W
30.03.26LW
Llaneros W0
Real Santander W0
D
25.03.26LW
Llaneros W1
Orsomarso W1
D
15.03.26LW
Ind. Medellin W2
Llaneros W1
L
10.03.26LW
Llaneros W0
Fortaleza W2
L
Santa Fe W
23.05.26LW
Inter Palmira W0
Santa Fe W2
W
17.05.26LW
Santa Fe W2
Ind. Medellin W0
W
11.05.26LW
Junior W1
Santa Fe W1
D
03.05.26LW
Santa Fe W0
Millonarios W0
D
26.04.26LW
Dep. Pasto W0
Santa Fe W0
D
19.04.26LW
Santa Fe W3
Inter Bogotá W1
W
28.03.26LW
America de Cali W1
Santa Fe W2
W
23.03.26LW
Santa Fe W1
Dep. Cali W1
D
15.03.26LW
Orsomarso W1
Santa Fe W0
L
09.03.26LW
Santa Fe W5
Bucaramanga W0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 28th May 2026, Llaneros W host Santa Fe W in Colombia Liga Women. Our analysis desk recommends Santa Fe W to win as the standout selection.

Llaneros W arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Santa Fe W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 4D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Llaneros W, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Santa Fe W's 9, with 0 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 44% of those meetings.

Our verdict: santa fe w to win at odds of 1.36 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Colombia Liga Women game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.36. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 28 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Llaneros W vs Santa Fe W?
Our selection is 2 — Santa Fe W to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Llaneros W's current form?
Llaneros W have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Santa Fe W been performing recently?
Santa Fe W have recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Llaneros W lead with 0 wins versus Santa Fe W's 9, with 0 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 44%.
⚠️
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