WON Case WON Llanelli 0-2 Briton Ferry

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Llanelli

Q: What is the recommended bet for Llanelli vs Briton Ferry?

Our selection is 2 — Briton Ferry to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 61%.

Q: What is Llanelli's current form?

Llanelli have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Briton Ferry been performing recently?

Briton Ferry have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Llanelli lead with 1 wins versus Briton Ferry's 4, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.

Home Side

D L D L L

0W 2D 3L → Holding Steady

0-2

Briton Ferry

Away Side

W D L W W

3W 1D 1L → Holding Steady

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MODERATE

61%

Friday, 13th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Briton Ferry to win

Llanelli 20%

Draw 30%

Briton Ferry 50%

H Fair Odds5

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds2

Implied Prob73.5%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-12.5%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBL<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<B<<<<<<F<<<<<<<<<ABEAC058E4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 13 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Head to Head

Record

Llanelli

Draws

Briton Ferry

Meetings

4.2

Avg Goals

80%

BTTS

80%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Briton Ferry won 4 of 5 meetings.

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Llanelli

Metric

Briton Ferry

0.4

Goals For / Game

1.6

1.4

Goals Against / Game

1.2

20%

Clean Sheets

20%

0-2-3

W — D — L

3-1-1

Win Rate

60%

2.3

Avg Goals

70%

Over 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

50%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 10.0%

0-1 15.0%

0-2 11.3%

0-3 5.6%

0-4 2.1%

0-5 0.6%

1-0 8.0%

1-1 12.0%

1-2 9.0%

1-3 4.5%

1-4 1.7%

1-5 0.5%

2-0 3.2%

2-1 4.8%

2-2 3.6%

2-3 1.8%

2-4 0.7%

2-5 0.2%

3-0 0.9%

3-1 1.3%

3-2 1.0%

3-3 0.5%

3-4 0.2%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 0.2%

4-1 0.3%

4-2 0.2%

4-3 0.1%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.0%

5-1 0.0%

5-2 0.0%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 0-1(15.0%) 0-2(11.3%) 1-2(9.0%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing L=Home goals ↓ B=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Llanelli Win

20%

Draw

30%

3.33

Briton Ferry Win

50%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Llanelli

Overall

1.2 —

Scoring

1.3 —

Defence

5.3 —

Briton Ferry

Overall

6.6 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

6.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 0%

Home Win & BTTS No 0%

Draw & BTTS Yes 17%

Draw & BTTS No 17%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 34%

Away Win & BTTS No 34%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 0%

Home Win & Under 2.5 0%

Draw & Over 2.5 13%

Draw & Under 2.5 20%

Away Win & Over 2.5 27%

Away Win & Under 2.5 40%

🧮

Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

📜

Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ PL (Jan 23, 2026): Briton Ferry3

Llanelli1

⚽ PL (Sep 23, 2025): Briton Ferry1

Llanelli2

⚽ PL (Aug 22, 2025): Llanelli2

Briton Ferry4

⚽ FAW (Apr 13, 2024): Llanelli2

Briton Ferry5

⚽ FAC (Dec 8, 2023): Briton Ferry1

Llanelli0

Recent Form

Llanelli

⚽ PL (Feb 27, 2026): Bala0

Llanelli0

⚽ PL (Feb 20, 2026): Llanelli0

Haverfordwest1

⚽ PL (Feb 13, 2026): Cardiff Metropolitan1

Llanelli1

⚽ PL (Feb 7, 2026): Llanelli0

Flint2

⚽ PL (Jan 23, 2026): Briton Ferry3

Llanelli1

Briton Ferry

⚽ PL (Feb 21, 2026): Briton Ferry2

Bala1

⚽ PL (Feb 14, 2026): Flint0

Briton Ferry0

⚽ PL (Feb 06, 2026): Briton Ferry0

Haverfordwest2

⚽ PL (Jan 23, 2026): Briton Ferry3

Llanelli1

⚽ PL (Jan 13, 2026): Haverfordwest2

Briton Ferry3

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Friday, 13th March 2026, Llanelli host Briton Ferry in Wales Cymru Premier. Our analysis desk recommends Briton Ferry to win as the standout selection.

Llanelli arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Briton Ferry are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 3W 1D 1L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Llanelli, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Briton Ferry's 4, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: briton ferry to win at odds of 1.36 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 13 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Llanelli vs Briton Ferry?

Our selection is 2 — Briton Ferry to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 61%.

What is Llanelli's current form?

Llanelli have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

How has Briton Ferry been performing recently?

Briton Ferry have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Llanelli lead with 1 wins versus Briton Ferry's 4, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.

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