WON Case WON Kitara 4-0 Buhimba

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Kitara

Q: What is the recommended bet for Kitara vs Buhimba?

Our selection is 1 — Kitara to win, priced at approximately 1.15. Tip confidence rating: 50%.

Q: What is Kitara's current form?

Kitara have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Buhimba been performing recently?

Buhimba have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Kitara lead with 0 wins versus Buhimba's 1, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

Home Side

W D W D W

3W 2D 0L → Holding Steady

4-0

Buhimba

Away Side

L L L D D

0W 2D 3L → Holding Steady

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MODERATE

50%

Friday, 13th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Kitara to win

Implied Prob87%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-37%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBK<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<0F230A9FC4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 13 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Kitara to win

1.15

Under 2.5 Goals100% BTTS — No70% Kitara Clean Sheet60%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Kitara vs Buhimba Competition: Uganda Premier League Date: Friday, 13th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Kitara to win) Odds: 1.15 Confidence: 50% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (100%) Also: BTTS — No (70%) Also: Kitara Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: 0F230A9FC

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Head to Head

Record

Kitara

Draws

Buhimba

Meetings

Avg Goals

BTTS

Over 2.5

Against Filing Kitara won 0 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Kitara

Metric

Buhimba

1.2

Goals For / Game

0.2

0.4

Goals Against / Game

60%

Clean Sheets

20%

3-2-0

W — D — L

0-2-3

Win Rate

60%

1.4

Avg Goals

50%

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

30%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 24.7%

0-1 7.4%

0-2 1.1%

0-3 0.1%

0-4 0.0%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 27.1%

1-1 8.1%

1-2 1.2%

1-3 0.1%

1-4 0.0%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 14.9%

2-1 4.5%

2-2 0.7%

2-3 0.1%

2-4 0.0%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 5.5%

3-1 1.6%

3-2 0.3%

3-3 0.0%

3-4 0.0%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 1.5%

4-1 0.5%

4-2 0.1%

4-3 0.0%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.3%

5-1 0.1%

5-2 0.0%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(27.1%) 2-0(14.9%) 3-0(5.5%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing K=Home goals ↓ B=Away →

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Team Ratings

Grades

Kitara

Overall

7.2 —

Scoring

4.0 —

Defence

8.7 —

Buhimba

Overall

1.2 —

Scoring

0.7 —

Defence

6.7 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Home Win & BTTS No 42%

Draw & BTTS Yes 12%

Draw & BTTS No 28%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%

Away Win & BTTS No 0%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 0%

Home Win & Under 2.5 60%

Draw & Over 2.5 0%

Draw & Under 2.5 40%

Away Win & Over 2.5 0%

Away Win & Under 2.5 0%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ PL (Oct 16, 2025): Buhimba1

Kitara0

Recent Form

Kitara

⚽ PL (Mar 10, 2026): Mbarara City0

Kitara1

⚽ PL (Mar 6, 2026): UPDF1

Kitara1

⚽ PL (Mar 3, 2026): Kitara2

Entebbe UPPC0

⚽ PL (Feb 19, 2026): Kitara1

URA SC1

⚽ PL (Feb 12, 2026): Maroons0

Kitara1

Buhimba

⚽ PL (Mar 10, 2026): Buhimba0

BUL1

⚽ PL (Mar 7, 2026): Maroons1

Buhimba0

⚽ PL (Mar 2, 2026): Buhimba0

Kampala City2

⚽ PL (Feb 17, 2026): Buhimba1

Police1

⚽ PL (Feb 13, 2026): UPDF0

Buhimba0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Friday, 13th March 2026, Kitara host Buhimba in Uganda Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Kitara to win as the standout selection.

Kitara arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Buhimba are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 2D 3L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kitara, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Buhimba's 1, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kitara to win at odds of 1.15 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 13 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Kitara vs Buhimba?

Our selection is 1 — Kitara to win, priced at approximately 1.15. Tip confidence rating: 50%.

What is Kitara's current form?

Kitara have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has Buhimba been performing recently?

Buhimba have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Kitara lead with 0 wins versus Buhimba's 1, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

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