LOST Case LOST KFG Gardabaer 4-3 Fjolnir
Fixture Case File · Ref V
K

KFG Gardabaer

Home Side
L L W L L
1W 3D 6L → Holding Steady
VS
4-3
F
Fjolnir
Away Side
W L W W L
6W 0D 4L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
54%
Monday, 1st June 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Fjolnir to win
KFG Gardabaer 20%
Draw 30%
Fjolnir 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob72.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-18.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBKFG<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<F<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<11E38A73B4DFB2609222M2609229<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 2 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — Fjolnir to win
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals95% Over 1.5 Goals100% BTTS — Yes95%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
KFG Gardabaer vs Fjolnir Competition: Iceland Division 2 Date: Monday, 1st June 2026 Pick: 2 (Fjolnir to win) Odds: 1.38 Confidence: 54% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (95%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (100%) Also: BTTS — Yes (95%) Ledger Ref: 11E38A73B
Head to Head
Record
Neutral No head-to-head data found.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
KFG Gardabaer
Metric
Fjolnir
1.6
Goals For / Game
3
2.7
Goals Against / Game
2.3
0%
Clean Sheets
0%
1-3-6
W — D — L
6-0-4
Win Rate
10%
60%
4.8
Avg Goals
100%
Over 1.5
95%
Over 2.5
95%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
K0
0-0 0.8%
0-1 2.4%
0-2 3.3%
0-3 3.2%
0-4 2.3%
0-5 1.3%
K1
1-0 1.6%
1-1 4.6%
1-2 6.5%
1-3 6.2%
1-4 4.4%
1-5 2.5%
K2
2-0 1.6%
2-1 4.5%
2-2 6.4%
2-3 6.0%
2-4 4.3%
2-5 2.5%
K3
3-0 1.0%
3-1 2.9%
3-2 4.1%
3-3 3.9%
3-4 2.8%
3-5 1.6%
K4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 1.4%
4-2 2.0%
4-3 1.9%
4-4 1.4%
4-5 0.8%
K5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.8%
5-4 0.5%
5-5 0.3%
Top Scores 1-2(6.5%) 1-3(6.2%) 2-3(6.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing K=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
KFG Gardabaer Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Fjolnir Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
KFG Gardabaer
Overall
1.9
Scoring
5.3
Defence
1.0
Fjolnir
Overall
6.0
Scoring
10.0
Defence
2.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Home Win & BTTS No 1%
Draw & BTTS Yes 17%
Draw & BTTS No 1%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 67%
Away Win & BTTS No 4%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 1%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 67%
Away Win & Under 2.5 4%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
KFG Gardabaer
21.05.26D2
KFG Gardabaer0
Haukar4
L
16.05.26D2
KFG Gardabaer1
Magni2
L
09.05.26D2
KFG Gardabaer3
Throttur Vogar1
W
02.05.26D2
Kari5
KFG Gardabaer1
L
19.03.26CUP
KFG Gardabaer2
Vidir3
L
13.09.25D2
KFG Gardabaer2
KFA2
D
06.09.25D2
Kormakur/Hvot3
KFG Gardabaer1
L
30.08.25D2
Vidir2
KFG Gardabaer2
D
23.08.25D2
KFG Gardabaer1
Dalvik/Reynir1
D
17.08.25D2
Kari4
KFG Gardabaer3
L
Fjolnir
23.05.26D2
Fjolnir5
Olafsvik1
W
15.05.26D2
Haukar3
Fjolnir1
L
09.05.26D2
Fjolnir2
Dalvik/Reynir1
W
01.05.26D2
Fjolnir4
Magni1
W
06.04.26CUP
Fjolnir3
Kopavogur4
L
01.04.26CUP
Fjolnir2
Vidir1
W
18.03.26CUP
Alafoss1
Fjolnir4
W
19.01.26CUP
Fjolnir3
Vikingur Reykjavik4
L
14.01.26CUP
Leiknir3
Fjolnir4
W
08.01.26CUP
IR Reykjavik4
Fjolnir2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Monday, 1st June 2026, KFG Gardabaer host Fjolnir in Iceland Division 2. Our analysis desk recommends Fjolnir to win as the standout selection.

KFG Gardabaer arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Fjolnir are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 0D 4L across 10 matches.

Our verdict: fjolnir to win at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Iceland Division 2 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.38. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 2 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for KFG Gardabaer vs Fjolnir?
Our selection is 2 — Fjolnir to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 54%.
What is KFG Gardabaer's current form?
KFG Gardabaer have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Fjolnir been performing recently?
Fjolnir have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.8 goals per game.
⚠️
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