LOST Case LOST Al Najaf 1-0 Al Zawraa
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Al Najaf

Home Side
W L L D L
1W 2D 7L ▲ Trending Up
VS
1-0
A
Al Zawraa
Away Side
L L D W W
5W 3D 2L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
45%
Monday, 1st June 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Al Zawraa to win
Al Najaf 20%
Draw 30%
Al Zawraa 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob74.1%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-29.1%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<N<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<Z<<<<<<<<<<<<<6D45BDFED4DFB2609222M2609229<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 2 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — Al Zawraa to win
1.35
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Al Najaf vs Al Zawraa Competition: Iraq Stars League Date: Monday, 1st June 2026 Pick: 2 (Al Zawraa to win) Odds: 1.35 Confidence: 45% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: 6D45BDFED
Head to Head
Record
2
Al Najaf
5
Draws
3
Al Zawraa
10
Meetings
1.9
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Al Zawraa won 3 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Najaf
Metric
Al Zawraa
1.1
Goals For / Game
1.6
2.3
Goals Against / Game
0.9
0%
Clean Sheets
40%
1-2-7
W — D — L
5-3-2
Win Rate
10%
50%
3
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 10.2%
0-2 10.0%
0-3 6.5%
0-4 3.2%
0-5 1.2%
A1
1-0 5.2%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 10.0%
1-3 6.5%
1-4 3.2%
1-5 1.2%
A2
2-0 2.6%
2-1 5.1%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 3.2%
2-4 1.6%
2-5 0.6%
A3
3-0 0.9%
3-1 1.7%
3-2 1.7%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.2%
A4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(10.2%) 0-2(10.0%) 1-2(10.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Najaf Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Al Zawraa Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Najaf
Overall
1.6
Scoring
3.7
Defence
2.3
Al Zawraa
Overall
5.9
Scoring
5.3
Defence
7.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Home Win & BTTS No 4%
Draw & BTTS Yes 20%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 41%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 8%
Home Win & Under 2.5 4%
Draw & Over 2.5 19%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 38%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.01.26SL
Al Zawraa2
Al Najaf0
08.03.25SL
Al Najaf1
Al Zawraa2
30.11.24SL
Al Zawraa1
Al Najaf1
31.03.24SL
Al Zawraa0
Al Najaf0
02.12.23SL
Al Najaf0
Al Zawraa0
29.04.23SL
Al Zawraa1
Al Najaf1
30.11.22SL
Al Najaf1
Al Zawraa0
03.07.22SL
Al Zawraa1
Al Najaf2
15.01.22SL
Al Najaf2
Al Zawraa2
05.07.21SL
Al Zawraa2
Al Najaf0
Recent Form
Al Najaf
28.05.26SL
Al Najaf1
Al-Qassim2
W
24.05.26SL
Naft Missan2
Al Najaf1
L
20.05.26SL
Al Najaf2
Al Karkh5
L
16.05.26SL
Zakho1
Al Najaf1
D
11.05.26SL
Al Najaf1
Erbil4
L
07.05.26SL
Al Najaf1
Baghdad1
D
27.04.26SL
Al Najaf1
Duhok2
L
17.04.26SL
Al Najaf2
Newroz1
W
12.04.26SL
Al Najaf0
Al-Karma3
L
08.04.26SL
Al Talaba2
Al Najaf1
L
Al Zawraa
27.05.26SL
Al Zawraa0
Al Naft1
L
20.05.26SL
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
Al Zawraa1
L
14.05.26SL
Al Zawraa1
Al-Qassim1
D
10.05.26SL
Al Minaa0
Al Zawraa2
W
05.05.26SL
Al Talaba0
Al Zawraa1
W
01.05.26SL
Al Zawraa2
Duhok2
D
26.04.26SL
Baghdad2
Al Zawraa2
D
22.04.26SL
Al Zawraa2
Diyala0
W
18.04.26SL
Al Zawraa3
Al Karkh0
W
13.04.26SL
Al Shorta1
Al Zawraa2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Monday, 1st June 2026, Al Najaf host Al Zawraa in Iraq Stars League. Our analysis desk recommends Al Zawraa to win as the standout selection.

Al Najaf arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Al Zawraa are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 3D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Najaf, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Al Zawraa's 3, with 5 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al zawraa to win at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Iraq Stars League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.35. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 2 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Najaf vs Al Zawraa?
Our selection is 2 — Al Zawraa to win, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 45%.
What is Al Najaf's current form?
Al Najaf have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Zawraa been performing recently?
Al Zawraa have recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Najaf lead with 2 wins versus Al Zawraa's 3, with 5 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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