WON Case WON Ind Medellin W 3-0 Once Caldas W
Fixture Case File · Ref V
I

Ind Medellin W

Home Side
L W L W D
3W 4D 3L ▼ Trending Down
VS
3-0
O
Once Caldas W
Away Side
L L L L L
0W 3D 7L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
52%
Tuesday, 28th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Ind Medellin W to win
Ind Medellin W 50%
Draw 30%
Once Caldas W 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob82%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-30%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBI<<<M<<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<O<<<<C<<<<<<W<<<<F2C28908E4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 28 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Ind Medellin W to win
1.22
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Ind Medellin W vs Once Caldas W Competition: Colombia Liga Women Date: Tuesday, 28th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Ind Medellin W to win) Odds: 1.22 Confidence: 52% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ledger Ref: F2C28908E
Head to Head
Record
3
Ind Medellin W
0
Draws
0
Once Caldas W
3
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
33%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Ind Medellin W won 3 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Ind Medellin W
Metric
Once Caldas W
1.5
Goals For / Game
0.7
1.3
Goals Against / Game
2.2
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
3-4-3
W — D — L
0-3-7
Win Rate
30%
0%
2.9
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
O0
O1
O2
O3
O4
O5
I0
0-0 5.8%
0-1 5.8%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
I1
1-0 10.7%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 5.4%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
I2
2-0 9.9%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
I3
3-0 6.1%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
I4
4-0 2.8%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
I5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.7%) 2-0(9.9%) 2-1(9.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing I=Home goals ↓   O=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Ind Medellin W Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Once Caldas W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Ind Medellin W
Overall
4.2
Scoring
5.0
Defence
5.7
Once Caldas W
Overall
0.9
Scoring
2.3
Defence
2.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%
Home Win & BTTS No 18%
Draw & BTTS Yes 32%
Draw & BTTS No 22%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 14%
Draw & Over 2.5 38%
Draw & Under 2.5 16%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
26.05.25LW
Once Caldas W0
Ind. Medellin2
18.08.19LW
Ind. Medellin W1
Once Caldas0
20.07.19LW
Once Caldas W0
Ind. Medellin6
Recent Form
Ind Medellin W
15.04.26LW
Junior W3
Ind. Medellin W2
L
31.03.26LW
Ind. Medellin W3
Dep. Pasto W1
W
25.03.26LW
Inter Bogotá W1
Ind. Medellin W0
L
15.03.26LW
Ind. Medellin W2
Llaneros W1
W
10.03.26LW
Inter Palmira W0
Ind. Medellin W0
D
01.03.26LW
Ind. Medellin W3
Real Santander W0
W
14.02.26LW
Dep. Cali W3
Ind. Medellin W1
L
28.08.25LW
Ind. Medellin W1
Inter Palmira W1
D
23.08.25LW
Orsomarso W2
Ind. Medellin W2
D
20.08.25LW
Dep. Cali W1
Ind. Medellin W1
D
Once Caldas W
15.04.26LW
Once Caldas W0
Dep. Cali W2
L
30.03.26LW
Inter Bogotá W2
Once Caldas W1
L
22.03.26LW
Once Caldas W1
America de Cali W2
L
17.03.26LW
Millonarios W3
Once Caldas W0
L
10.03.26LW
Once Caldas W1
Junior W2
L
28.02.26LW
Fortaleza W0
Once Caldas W0
D
15.02.26LW
Once Caldas W0
Santa Fe W3
L
21.06.25LW
Millonarios W4
Once Caldas W0
L
15.06.25LW
Once Caldas W2
America de Cali W2
D
11.06.25LW
Dep. Pasto W2
Once Caldas W2
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 28th April 2026, Ind Medellin W host Once Caldas W in Colombia Liga Women. Our analysis desk recommends Ind Medellin W to win as the standout selection.

Ind Medellin W arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Once Caldas W are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 3D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Ind Medellin W, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Once Caldas W's 0, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: ind medellin w to win at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Colombia Liga Women game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.22. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 28 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Ind Medellin W vs Once Caldas W?
Our selection is 1 — Ind Medellin W to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 52%.
What is Ind Medellin W's current form?
Ind Medellin W have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Once Caldas W been performing recently?
Once Caldas W have recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Ind Medellin W lead with 3 wins versus Once Caldas W's 0, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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