WON Case WON East Bengal 3-0 Odisha
Fixture Case File · Ref V
E

East Bengal

Home Side
D W W D D
4W 3D 3L → Holding Steady
VS
3-0
O
Odisha
Away Side
L D L L W
2W 3D 5L → Holding Steady
CAUTION
37%
Tuesday, 28th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on East Bengal to win
East Bengal 50%
Draw 30%
Odisha 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob78.7%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-41.7%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBE<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<O<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<96A8050624DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 28 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — East Bengal to win
1.27
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
East Bengal vs Odisha Competition: India ISL Date: Tuesday, 28th April 2026 Pick: 1 (East Bengal to win) Odds: 1.27 Confidence: 37% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ledger Ref: 96A805062
Head to Head
Record
1
East Bengal
2
Draws
7
Odisha
10
Meetings
3.9
Avg Goals
90%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Against Filing East Bengal won 1 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
East Bengal
Metric
Odisha
2.2
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1.9
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
4-3-3
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
40%
20%
3.3
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
O0
O1
O2
O3
O4
O5
E0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 4.6%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
E1
1-0 7.6%
1-1 9.5%
1-2 5.9%
1-3 2.5%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
E2
2-0 7.8%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 6.1%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
E3
3-0 5.3%
3-1 6.6%
3-2 4.1%
3-3 1.7%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
E4
4-0 2.7%
4-1 3.4%
4-2 2.1%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
E5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.4%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.7%) 2-0(7.8%) 1-0(7.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing E=Home goals ↓   O=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
East Bengal Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Odisha Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
East Bengal
Overall
4.9
Scoring
7.3
Defence
5.7
Odisha
Overall
2.9
Scoring
4.0
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 15%
Draw & BTTS Yes 21%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 29%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 21%
Draw & Under 2.5 12%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
12.12.24ISL
East Bengal1
Odisha FC2
22.10.24ISL
Odisha FC2
East Bengal1
29.02.24ISL
Odisha FC2
East Bengal1
28.01.24HSC
East Bengal3
Odisha FC (2 - 2)2
22.12.23ISL
East Bengal0
Odisha FC0
09.04.23HSC
Odisha FC1
East Bengal1
07.01.23ISL
Odisha FC3
East Bengal1
18.11.22ISL
East Bengal2
Odisha FC4
07.02.22ISL
East Bengal1
Odisha FC2
30.11.21ISL
Odisha FC6
East Bengal4
Recent Form
East Bengal
16.04.26ISL
East Bengal3
Bengaluru FC3
D
11.04.26ISL
Chennaiyin1
East Bengal3
W
23.03.26ISL
East Bengal7
Mohammedan0
W
14.03.26ISL
East Bengal1
Kerala Blasters1
D
05.03.26ISL
East Bengal0
Goa0
D
27.02.26ISL
East Bengal1
Jamshedpur2
L
21.02.26ISL
East Bengal4
SC Delhi1
W
16.02.26ISL
East Bengal3
North East Utd0
W
07.12.25HSC
East Bengal0
Goa (0 - 0)1
L
04.12.25HSC
East Bengal3
Punjab1
W
Odisha
23.04.26ISL
Kerala Blasters2
Odisha FC1
L
17.04.26ISL
Odisha FC1
Mohammedan1
D
10.04.26ISL
Goa3
Odisha FC1
L
05.04.26ISL
Mumbai City1
Odisha FC0
L
20.03.26ISL
North East Utd1
Odisha FC4
W
06.03.26ISL
Mohun Bagan5
Odisha FC1
L
01.03.26ISL
Odisha FC1
Chennaiyin1
D
24.02.26ISL
Odisha FC0
Inter Kashi0
D
21.04.25HSC
Odisha FC0
Punjab3
L
05.03.25ISL
Jamshedpur2
Odisha FC3
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 28th April 2026, East Bengal host Odisha in India ISL. Our analysis desk recommends East Bengal to win as the standout selection.

East Bengal arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Odisha are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour East Bengal, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Odisha's 7, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 90% of those meetings.

Our verdict: east bengal to win at odds of 1.27 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This India ISL game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.27. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 28 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for East Bengal vs Odisha?
Our selection is 1 — East Bengal to win, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 37%.
What is East Bengal's current form?
East Bengal have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Odisha been performing recently?
Odisha have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
East Bengal lead with 1 wins versus Odisha's 7, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 90%.
⚠️
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